86 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

.. or maybe merely a dip of less than 4%.

But, markets will drop before new 2023 highs, and then WHAT? That will be a very important market juncture.

Still LONG ASIAN MARKETS, short US markets but added hedges on Friday. I am not giving
the BEARS any more time: market must drop now or else I will close all US SHORTS.
Not going to trade SHORT in any new FOMO rally.

[dTraderB]

I agree with most of this:

"With Q2 earnings season set to start next week, the current momentum behind the market remains strong as investors continue to buy even the slightest dips in fear of missing out (F.O.M.O.) on further upside. Unfortunately, the bulk of the advance remains driven mainly by only a small handful of stocks, but breadth has improved somewhat in recent weeks.
Regardless, the market remains short-term overbought and deviated above longer-term moving averages. As noted, while momentum will continue to propel markets, such does not preclude an eventual correction resetting some of the overbought conditions. It is unknown when such a correction will occur or what will cause it. However, such a correction would provide a much better entry point to increase portfolio equity risk..."

https://realinvestme...port-the-bulls/

[dTraderB]

"BEARISH DIVERGENCES suggest exhaustion for buyers after a long bullish phase.
The 2021 market top was marked by a bearish momentum divergence for the S&P 500.
Bearish divergences between price and RSI indicate potential downside for leading growth stocks, including AMZN and LRCX.
The S&P 500 is now showing a bearish momentum divergence, similar to the market top in Q4 2021.


https://stockcharts...._eid=8d085491f3

[dTraderB]

Seems to be EARNINGS SEASON ever week...


he S&P 500 index is approaching its all-time highs
Investors will be closely watching big bank earnings and their impact on the broader market
Banking stocks could get a boost if banks report optimistic numbers
https://stockcharts...._eid=8d085491f3

[dTraderB]

Is this important?

S&P 500's A-D Line at New High
JULY 07, 2023 AT 06:52 PM
Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan

https://stockcharts...._eid=8d085491f3

[dTraderB]

Investors optimistic on economic turn while corporate managers aren't
Key points:

Over the past year, investors have greatly favored Cyclical stocks over Defensive ones
Corporate managers have a poor economic outlook, diverging from investors' outlook
Similar divergences typically preceded gains for stocks, though Cyclicals pulled back relatively
A historic split between investors and managers

The last year and a half has been populated by a lot of "never seen before" phenomena. To those, we can add a historic disconnect between the sentiment of investors and corporate managers.

Here's a current favorite of this situation being bandied on Twitter, with other versions having a different flavor but the same message. Investors have bid up the price of cyclical stocks versus defensive ones, while managers in the ISM Manufacturing survey have a poor outlook.

https://mailchi.mp/s...46?e=b27dc45da1

[dTraderB]

High yield bonds are showing more breakouts than breakdowns
Key points:

The spread between 52-week highs and lows as a percentage of issues for high-yield bonds exceeded 8%
Similar spread levels produced excellent returns for a high-yield bond index and the S&P 500
A 52-week high-low spread of 8% or more has never been observed during a recession or bear market
A bullish market breadth signal from high-yield bonds

Following an extended period during which the number of 52-week lows for high-yield bonds surpassed 52-week highs by a considerable margin, the situation has now reversed. Last week, the spread between 52-week highs and lows as a percentage of issues traded crossed the 8% mark for the first time since September 2021.

The recent surge in the spread to an 18th-month high is an interesting development, especially in light of rising Treasury yields and the growing chorus of recession and credit crunch predictions. It begs the question: What implications can we draw from the behavior of corporate bonds that exhibit heightened sensitivity to fluctuations in the business cycle?

Investors optimistic on economic turn while corporate managers aren't
Key points:

Over the past year, investors have greatly favored Cyclical stocks over Defensive ones
Corporate managers have a poor economic outlook, diverging from investors' outlook
Similar divergences typically preceded gains for stocks, though Cyclicals pulled back relatively
A historic split between investors and managers

The last year and a half has been populated by a lot of "never seen before" phenomena. To those, we can add a historic disconnect between the sentiment of investors and corporate managers.

Here's a current favorite of this situation being bandied on Twitter, with other versions having a different flavor but the same message. Investors have bid up the price of cyclical stocks versus defensive ones, while managers in the ISM Manufacturing survey have a poor outlook.

https://mailchi.mp/s...46?e=b27dc45da1

[dTraderB]

Many DIP BUYERS:
S&P 500 Signals (@SPYSTSignals) tweeted at 4:41 PM on Sun, Jul 09, 2023:
Planning to buy the dip tomorrow and sell Friday. Small size, just picking up pennies in front of the steamroller.

[dTraderB]

Elon threatens court action but...

Corry Wang (@corry_wang) tweeted at 5:47 PM on Sun, Jul 09, 2023:

Wow, Threads is probably about 3-5 hours away from hitting 100M signups

https://t.co/n7BqlNBi8C

[cafeflorida]

100% cash right now.

 

From my watch, ETA on the steamroller is 4th wk of July, w/ topping action preceding.

 

Prob'ly some upside left, but I don't care -- juice ain't worth the squeeze.

 

Preservation of capital.