6 replies to this topic

[MikeyG]

Not sure the exact year. 

 

Stopped me in the parking lot and we talked econ for a bit... he pointed out the yield curve is inverted and that a very good indicator of a recession. 

 

A year later it got messy, more pain than most predicted. 

 

That stuck with me. 

 

Here we are about a year into the inversion and the old saying is the bond market is smarter than the stock market. 

 

We will see... 

[MDurkin]

Not sure the exact year. 

 

Stopped me in the parking lot and we talked econ for a bit... he pointed out the yield curve is inverted and that a very good indicator of a recession. 

 

A year later it got messy, more pain than most predicted. 

 

That stuck with me. 

 

Here we are about a year into the inversion and the old saying is the bond market is smarter than the stock market. 

 

We will see... 

Yep. rates- rise/pause/hold/cut... reinversion= fireworks... unless this time is different...which I highly doubt.

[pdx5]

60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

Credit card debt and credit card interest rates hit a new high.

Many Americans are $300 unforeseen expense away from disaster.

 

We are already in recession situation.

[12SPX]

Yup, first time ever bonds are looking at 3 year losses in a row, for sure different this time, things could get really ugly, way to much credit out there....

[fib_1618]

https://tinyurl.com/y6r7cc5f

 

 

 

[MikeyG]

https://tinyurl.com/y6r7cc5f

 

 

 

 

Nice chart

[fib_1618]

https://tinyurl.com/y6r7cc5f

 

Nice chart

 

Yes, it is, especially if one were to note the leadership qualities this ratio has toward future stock market prices. For example, the "boom" liquidity sequence of 2022 looks to be peaking out now, and we can all see what the ratio did after that as we go into the end of the year...similar to that of the 2007-2009 period.

 

Fib