383 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

WSJ: An Important Shift in Fed Officials Rate Stance Is Under Way
Central bank is likely to pause rate increases in September, then take a harder look at whether more are needed

[dTraderB]

My FF is THIS ST RALLY is almost over

Edited by dTraderB, 10 September 2023 - 11:37 AM.

[linrom1]

Every market shows this pattern, will it all work out?

[dTraderB]

Important DATA WEEK IN CHINA.
"
The dollar is at a six-month high, Asian currencies are feeling the heat, and traders are on intervention alert - India's rupee posted a record closing low on Thursday and the Japanese yen, Philippine peso and Thai Baht are at their lowest levels this year.



Currencies may also get direction from a sprinkling of key economic indicators across the region this week - Indian trade and inflation, Australian unemployment, Indonesia retail sales, and Japanese industrial production and machinery orders.



The economic data spotlight this week will shine on China. Beijing often concentrates the release of key indicators into short bursts - often referred to as the 'Chinese data dump' - but this one is particularly heavy.



China's sputtering economy
Money supply, loan growth, social financing (a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy), retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, house prices and fixed asset investment are all due for release by September 15.



That follows producer and consumer price inflation figures on Saturday that suggest disinflationary pressures are sticky. Annual PPI was negative for the 11th month in a row, and annual CPI rose only 0.1%, undershooting forecasts of a 0.2% increase.



The state of China's economy will be much clearer by the end of the week, as will the scale of the task facing authorities to provide the necessary monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep Beijing's goal of 5% GDP growth this year in sight.



But complicating this is the yuan, which is at a 16-year low. Further policy easing will put it under even heavier downward pressure, risking a spiral of FX depreciation, asset market weakness and capital flight."

[linrom1]

Holy cow, BOJ is on fire as rates explode.

[dTraderB]

NYT: The week ahead
The unveiling of a new iPhone model, a pivotal Big Tech antitrust case and a new batch of inflation data heres what to watch.

Tomorrow: Apple is set to reveal its latest iPhone model, expected to be its priciest yet, as smartphone sales decline worldwide. And the biggest antitrust case in a generation kicks off as the Justice Department takes on Google over whether the tech giant used its dominance in search to squash rivals.

Wednesday: The Consumer Price Index is set to be published; economists polled by Bloomberg expect core inflation to have edged down last month, though rising energy costs probably pushed up the headline figure.

Thursday: The release of August retail sales data and the Producer Price Index will offer more clues on the pace of inflation ahead of next weeks Fed rate-setting meeting. Its also decision day for the European Central Bank. Even with eurozone inflation running hot, economists expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady.

[dTraderB]

Morgan Stanley says its a lonely bull, recommending government bonds
Morgan Stanley strategists have been almost apologetic about their view that the stock market would struggle, in a year in which the S&P 500 SPXhas gained 16%. But less remarked upon is that the investment banks team made another wrong call, in being bullish government bonds.

We stand alone, with conviction, telling investors to buy government bonds, despite incessant selling and weak price action, driven by backward looking and in our view questionable narratives, say the team led by Matthew Hornbach.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y has climbed 43 basis points this year, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y has gained nearly the same, 40 basis points. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

The strategists in particular are recommending the 5-year U.S. Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD05Y, and the 30-year Treasury inflation-protected security.

[dTraderB]

Buying BONDS. ST TRADING CALLS also - not doing good last 2 monyhs - but now building a LONG BONDS position.

Morgan Stanley says its a lonely bull, recommending government bonds
Morgan Stanley strategists have been almost apologetic about their view that the stock market would struggle, in a year in which the S&P 500 SPXhas gained 16%. But less remarked upon is that the investment banks team made another wrong call, in being bullish government bonds.

We stand alone, with conviction, telling investors to buy government bonds, despite incessant selling and weak price action, driven by backward looking and in our view questionable narratives, say the team led by Matthew Hornbach.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y has climbed 43 basis points this year, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y has gained nearly the same, 40 basis points. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

The strategists in particular are recommending the 5-year U.S. Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD05Y, and the 30-year Treasury inflation-protected security.

[12SPX]

Just had the first moment of silence this being 9/11. Still remember the day like it was yesterday.  Remember how everyone was thinking it was a cessna at first but as we watched moments before futures closed at 9:15 back then before the cash open, the second plane hit the second tower and boom futures started dropping like a rock before they closed.  After that they never opened again for a week and I was pissed that when they finally opened they were way down as everyone wanted a bullish move to stick it to the terrorists.  Was a sad day overall and always needs to be remembered.......

 

Well this is interesting, went into the weekend taking profits on my Dec trades for 8 points but unofficial as I was away and it wasn't posted.  Was posted I went into cash on the Septembers.  This morning starting with an average short of 4525 as the premium increase between cash is ridiculous once again and interestingly bond yields are on their way up again.  Will be interesting to see how the cash session goes with these lofty levels as it doesn't look like stocks have the same idea.  Also interesting that volatility is moving up along with it to.  This is expiration week and a big one with it being a quad witch but as I mentioned last week we already hit around my numbers for highs and we shouldn't see much more of a move this week.  Would love to see a down week in the end which could change the way October looks but volatility is likely here to stay for awhile!! 

[12SPX]

And just like that, average short 4530...