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Risk Window(s) for the DJIA and a Frayed Cable

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 17 September 2023 - 02:02 PM

According to my risk summation system, the couple of days in the next week or so with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Friday September 22nd and Monday September 25th.  I assume this is one window with one turn, but that's just my guess.  Ignoring my system for a moment, I think Fed Wednesday should also be a risk window, especially if J. Powell has to fill up his ride with gas on the way to the Fed meeting.  


Last week the Monday the 11th risk window missed a brief hourly high by half a day, but it didn't amount to a hill of beans, so dud.  The Wednesday 13th and Thursday morning risk window caught a nice swing low and was within an hour of maybe an important top depending, of course, on action this coming week.  So all in all a mixed week for the system.





The British Pound, aka Cable, has been falling for a couple of months and is looking more than a bit frayed.  Although the Pound is oversold and may be due for a bounce, my COT based indicators say it's probably in trouble and ultimately heading lower.  Shoppers don't seem to be worried about the UK economy, though.  I was at a big UK mall yesterday, Cribbs Causeway, and the place was packed to the gunnels with shoppers.  It looked like Christmas.  Not sure what will drive the Pound lower - hope Bailey clears that up this coming Thursday.  By the way, I also calculate risk windows for Cable.  I haven't published them here since I imagine most of you yanks don't give a toss about the Pound, but just for giggles and grins the next couple of Cable turn risk windows are tomorrow Monday September 18th and Wednesday September 20th.