According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of the DJIA seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday September 25th and Tuesday the 26th. As I noted last week, Monday, and now Tuesday too, may be a part of a larger risk window which started last Friday the 22nd of September meaning there's just one turn or acceleration expected in these three days (a turn up or an acceleration down). Impossible to know for sure.
Last week my stock market risk window may have tagged a low depending on what happens in the rest of the window at the start of this coming week.
The British Pound risk window on Monday the 18th that I noted in last week's post captured a flaky low that only lasted a few hours, but the Wednesday the 20th risk window caught a nice turn down from a double top. My suspicion that the Pound was oversold and due for a bounce was not borne out in trading as the low on Monday didn't hold and the down trend continued. Cable is still due for a bounce, but I have too many scars from trying to catch falling knives already to make a stand here. Given that BOE's Bailey paused raising rates too and PM Sunak is panicking about the upcoming late 2024 election, I suppose Cable in the teens is not at all far fetched.
Low for longer is not going to solve J. Powell's little problem. This past week J. Powell once again stayed with the Arthur Burns strategy of trying to cure inflation with negative real rates (assuming you're using 1980's basis inflation calculations) which is just plain crazy since doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. The stock market crash risk window that I noted a couple of weeks ago coming in mid-October includes the days in which the next PPI and CPI are reported. Unless the bean counters at the BLS can magically massage away the big leap in energy prices, those numbers should be real doozy's and might just provide the match that lights the fuse on any stock market fireworks.
Regards,
Douglas
