According to my risk summation system, the days in the next week or so with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Wednesday October 18th and a window stretching from Friday October 20th through Monday October 23rd.
Last week had plenty of fireworks, just not in the US stock market. The broad three day risk window covering Tuesday thru Thursday caught what may be a high plateau depending, of course, on action this coming week. So far the crash risk window has been yet another dud. The window doesn't officially close until Monday, but despite a black swan war right on schedule, the stock market is holding up really well, more on that below. After Monday, the Chicken Little sky is falling cycle fowl will be deep fried until his next phoenix in mid-November.
So, a war with risk of sharply increasing world energy prices if Iran is drawn in is bullish? Either the wall of worry thingy is kicking in real hard or, as I suspect, all the Fed talking heads out there on the stump last week pumping have got the happy juices flowing yet again. Even with the higher inflation numbers reported this past week, these Fed heads couldn't keep their feet off the gas peddle. Energy, as I noted, is the wild card. The Fed may be able to just whistle past the grave yard once again, but only if they're really lucky. I got a sneaky suspicion that sooner or later all these cumulative Chicken Littles or ghosts thereof will come home to roost.
Regards,
Douglas
