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Just a Word of Caution

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#1 fib_1618

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Posted 21 October 2023 - 07:27 PM

Without breadth participation, large counter trend moves like we've seen in gold and silver over the last 2 weeks are considered "rogue waves" and not technically sustainable. The focus for the metals is always the expectation of future inflationary forces brought on by increasing liquidity levels, and when the main asset classes become fully flushed with cash, any excesses then "bypass" into gold and silver. So as long interest rates continue to climb higher, once the current geopolitical emotionalism wanes, we should expect both gold and silver to quickly go back to where they started at the beginning of October...which may also include catching up on the downside toward the nesting of the next cyclical low which is traditionally due in December.

 

Of course, throw a nuclear bomb into the mix, or even a collapse of a western government, then technical conditions don't really matter, do they?

 

Place your bets as you see fit, but do consider any long positions with one foot out the door just in case the proverbial trap door opens.

 

Fib

 

https://tinyurl.com/ae4f376

 

goldbpi.png


Edited by fib_1618, 21 October 2023 - 07:29 PM.

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#2 fib_1618

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Posted 11 November 2023 - 06:15 AM

If you haven't already noticed, the above chart updates every week so you can see the progress.

 

I have marked the chart with a small "x" for a reference point of the 10/21 post.

 

Fib


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#3 jacksterr

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Posted 11 November 2023 - 04:34 PM

Thanks for all your posting...



#4 fib_1618

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Posted 25 November 2023 - 06:28 PM

For the November 24th update a longer term 67 month contextual chart is provided for a bird's-eye view of things.

 

Fib


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#5 senorBS

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 11:36 AM

that BPI chart sure looks supportive for the possibility of an important bottom forming given the oversold levels reached, right time of year as well, we will see and thx for posting this stuff

 

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#6 K Wave

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 11:49 AM

that BPI chart sure looks supportive for the possibility of an important bottom forming given the oversold levels reached, right time of year as well, we will see and thx for posting this stuff

 

Senor

Yup, was thinkin' the same...nice looking bottom formation at extremely oversold levels....

 

Despite Gold being just a few bucks from all time highs....

 

If that that 3 year consolidation in Gold turns out to be be a HUGE high base in Cup W Handle setup..................

 

Still think Silver will outperform though once launch actually underway...which may come as soon as next week.

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 K Wave

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 12:20 PM

And look at SLV setup.....huge downtrend busted and fully backtested.

 

And now weekly momo starting to turn the corner....

 

Could it fail...yes it could....but this sure "looks" ripe...

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 fib_1618

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 02:11 PM

Nothing like having the price of gold closing at new all time highs, and at the same time, getting a new Precious Metals McClellan Summation Index buy signal!

 

The technical expectation is for further declines in interest rates which, in turn, is bullish for equities as liquidity levels begin to rise.

 

Still a problem though with the Bullish Percent Index which needs to get to 33% for a buy signal but that may be taken care of next week.

 

Fib

 

https://tinyurl.com/ywjukqzg

 

pmmcsum120123.png

 

 

 


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#9 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 December 2023 - 11:52 PM

Snippet from Monday's $XAU Forecast Update:

 

"XAU PUSHES TO A HIGHER HIGH - BUT IS STILL SHORT OF EVEN A 2023 HIGH - XAU pushed higher on Friday and continued to "HUG" the UPPER BOLLINGER BAND IN A SIGN OF STRENGTH.  VOLUME was STRONGER and it all looks good, but it raises the question - Why is GOLD at all time highs and XAU not even at the high of 2023?  Would  you believe that the ALL TIME HIGH in the XAU is MORE THAN 100 POINTS HIGHER at 232?  The answer is this, you see the GOLD TRADE is a BANKER TRADE - if something did  happen to our currency trade and it failed, it's not likely you would take a few crumbs of GOLD to buy retail goods, you would rely on Silver.  SILVER is trading at 1/2 of it's ALL TIME HIGH price of $50 here at $25.  So we need to think about this very carefully, because if SILVER is not going  higher, IF the miners are not at all time highs, then what exactly is this GOLD HIGH about?  It's about FEAR BETWEEN THE BANKS... so let's keep that in mind with regard to watching these banks carefully.  It's not about inflation, it's about BANKS.  The currency failure is OFF THE TABLE for now.  You better think hard about that before you load up on these metals.  If you already loaded up on GOLD, CONGRATULATIONS, but keep in mind, the market is telling us this is a TRADE and not some sweeping currency extinction event"


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#10 linrom1

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Posted 04 December 2023 - 09:56 AM

Snippet from Monday's $XAU Forecast Update:

 

"XAU PUSHES TO A HIGHER HIGH - BUT IS STILL SHORT OF EVEN A 2023 HIGH - XAU pushed higher on Friday and continued to "HUG" the UPPER BOLLINGER BAND IN A SIGN OF STRENGTH.  VOLUME was STRONGER and it all looks good, but it raises the question - Why is GOLD at all time highs and XAU not even at the high of 2023?  Would  you believe that the ALL TIME HIGH in the XAU is MORE THAN 100 POINTS HIGHER at 232?  The answer is this, you see the GOLD TRADE is a BANKER TRADE - if something did  happen to our currency trade and it failed, it's not likely you would take a few crumbs of GOLD to buy retail goods, you would rely on Silver.  SILVER is trading at 1/2 of it's ALL TIME HIGH price of $50 here at $25.  So we need to think about this very carefully, because if SILVER is not going  higher, IF the miners are not at all time highs, then what exactly is this GOLD HIGH about?  It's about FEAR BETWEEN THE BANKS... so let's keep that in mind with regard to watching these banks carefully.  It's not about inflation, it's about BANKS.  The currency failure is OFF THE TABLE for now.  You better think hard about that before you load up on these metals.  If you already loaded up on GOLD, CONGRATULATIONS, but keep in mind, the market is telling us this is a TRADE and not some sweeping currency extinction event"

Spot on and I may add the BRICS are proving to be a farce.