According to my risk summation system, the windows this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are one from about noon on Monday December 11th to noon Wednesday the 13th with the highest risk on the 12th and a risk window on Friday the 15th.
Last week the noon Monday to noon Wednesday risk window caught the low for the week Tuesday morning and some sort of high first thing Wednesday morning which was more or less matched in late Friday trading. If the DJIA heads down on Monday the 11th maybe this was a double top. If it heads higher, the Tuesday low may have been important. In other words the risk window wasn't exactly a dud, but it wasn't very helpful in figuring out what the heck is going on either.
BLS inflation fantasy figures, the Fed presser and the new moon should provide potential for some fireworks this week, but it's hard to know whether they will be cherry bombs or just sputtering sparklers. With crude continuing its southward journey, the inflation figures should be tame, and the Fed has telegraphed that it's on hold until Godot shows up, so I guess it will be up to the black new moon or some black swan migrating by to stir up any excitement.
Regards,
Douglas
