92 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Great BULL RUN into December now overly extended. But, except for shallow pullbacks, this has shown remarkable strength

[dTraderB]

McOsc in potential reversal zone but could hit 300 before reversal

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

"The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged over 10% since late October and exceeded the upper Bollinger Band (125,1). This means price is more than 1 standard deviation above the 125-day SMA. Surely, this means SPY is overbought. But is this actually bearish? Historical evidence suggests that this is more bullish than bearish."

https://stockcharts....earish-162.html

[dTraderB]

"Extreme Breadth Readings Say Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish"
https://stockcharts....-say-s-593.html

"The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged over 10% since late October and exceeded the upper Bollinger Band (125,1). This means price is more than 1 standard deviation above the 125-day SMA. Surely, this means SPY is overbought. But is this actually bearish? Historical evidence suggests that this is more bullish than bearish."

https://stockcharts....earish-162.html

[dTraderB]

"A historic expansion in new highs for small caps
Key points:

The percentage of small-cap stocks registering a 63-day high surged to one of the highest levels in history
Similar expansions in new highs produced excellent outcomes, with a 100% win rate a year later
A small, medium, and large capitalization stock index also recorded a signficant expansion in new highs
Participation is broadening across all stock market capitalizations

Throughout 2023, the prevailing narrative has centered around the notion that seven stocks solely propelled the market's upward trajectory. Although it's undeniably true that these Mag-7 stocks have played a substantial role in the overall gains of the S&P 500, it's essential to recognize that many opportunities have existed outside of a handful of bellwethers.

One area where opportunities have been limited is small-capitalization stocks. However, investors should take another look at this out-of-favor group.

On Thursday, the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks recording a 63-day high increased to 48%, reaching the 5th highest level in history."

https://mailchi.mp/5...-for-small-caps

[dTraderB]

"A historic expansion in new highs for small caps
Key points:

The percentage of small-cap stocks registering a 63-day high surged to one of the highest levels in history
Similar expansions in new highs produced excellent outcomes, with a 100% win rate a year later
A small, medium, and large capitalization stock index also recorded a signficant expansion in new highs
Participation is broadening across all stock market capitalizations

Throughout 2023, the prevailing narrative has centered around the notion that seven stocks solely propelled the market's upward trajectory. Although it's undeniably true that these Mag-7 stocks have played a substantial role in the overall gains of the S&P 500, it's essential to recognize that many opportunities have existed outside of a handful of bellwethers.

One area where opportunities have been limited is small-capitalization stocks. However, investors should take another look at this out-of-favor group.

On Thursday, the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks recording a 63-day high increased to 48%, reaching the 5th highest level in history."

https://mailchi.mp/5...-for-small-caps

[dTraderB]

Poll bullish for 8 consecutive weeks!
54-46

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 8:00 AM on Sat, Dec 16, 2023:
Saturday Poll.

The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...1029948664?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
NAHB Dec housing index, New York Fed Dec service sector survey
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee; European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel all speak
U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
U.S. corporate earnings: Ark Restaurants, Quipt Home Medical

[dTraderB]

"Goldmans raised its target for the S&P 500 for the second time in four weeks, joining the chorus predicting fresh records for the index. Even Morgan Stanley bear Michael Wilson said the Fed pivot is bullish for equities...
...Jerome Powells pivot is a pretty big gamble, Bill Dudley writes. The Fed is betting its reputation that it will be able to defeat excessive inflation without forcing the economy into recession. Theres a significant chance it wont."

[12SPX]

Whew to many Christmas party's this weekend.  Can't believe the markets up like this with bonds going the other way, volatility up and again these super expensive call options but what really gets me for example is Costco's move....  Great store and so popular however shooting up like this with a p/e ratio of 45 is absolutely insane and tells me this is just another extreme for the market overall.  Volatility in the market moving up and down is healthy, straight up moves always indicate an unhealthy move and no matter what someone says history has always been correct in the end.  I get it that its the end of the year but the scary thing is when rationality disappears all your doing is setting yourself up for a big fall.  I've missed a good portion of this rally but its mostly because I'm to rational I guess lol!!  just makes me add to my short now averaging 4672, 16704...