Mark S. Young
Posted 18 December 2023 - 04:41 PM
This is not what I wanted to see. The ISEE 10-day is probably the most reliable top-spotter we have, and it's flashing a rare Sell.
Now, it's not a surgical tool and picking tops in a strong market going into Christmas is a tough go. Still, this indicator should get right and we should get an intermediate-term decline starting within, maybe, 4 weeks.
Mark S Young
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Posted 18 December 2023 - 06:12 PM
Thanks Mark. Do you have a chart by chance? if not then no worries.
Mark S. Young
Posted 18 December 2023 - 06:24 PM
Thanks Mark. Do you have a chart by chance? if not then no worries.
Yeah. Failed to upload first try.
Mark S Young
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Posted 19 December 2023 - 12:23 AM
Mark, if it's not proprietary, how do you interpret the ISEE Index data to provide the "most reliable" top signal? Just based on the NASDAQ data presented at their website (www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/isee-index), the 10 SMA 20 SMA cross over seemed to give a pretty good top signal. Thanks in advance.
Regards,
Douglas
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Posted 19 December 2023 - 01:00 AM
The ISEE 10-day is probably the most reliable top-spotter we have, and it's flashing a rare Sell.
The daily chart of the ISEE Index is provided below for further discussion. You can see why the moving averages are as high as they are at a glance with 140 on the call side and 60 on the put side deemed as emotional extremes.With today's 155 reading, these are the simple moving averages I work with:
5 day ma is at 145
8 day ma is at 140
10 day ma is at 139
20 day ma is at 135
Quit the cluster.
Oh...and the last time the 10 day ma was above the 130 level was December 29, 2021...3 days before the SPX topped out before 2022's bear market condition.
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Posted 19 December 2023 - 02:27 PM
next week thy dump all the losers,Xmas sales should b dissapointing. I agree with Mark, this week should be the ST top.
Mark S. Young
Posted 19 December 2023 - 04:05 PM
Mark, if it's not proprietary, how do you interpret the ISEE Index data to provide the "most reliable" top signal? Just based on the NASDAQ data presented at their website (www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/isee-index), the 10 SMA 20 SMA cross over seemed to give a pretty good top signal. Thanks in advance.
Regards,
Douglas
That will get more signals, which has utility.
I just use the 10-day above 135 as a warning sign. Then lighten up on strength or wait for a Sell.
Mark S Young
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Posted 19 December 2023 - 11:49 PM
Another 2.7% or so should do it - around spx 4900.
lasergirl
Posted 20 December 2023 - 04:59 PM
This is not what I wanted to see. The ISEE 10-day is probably the most reliable top-spotter we have, and it's flashing a rare Sell.
Now, it's not a surgical tool and picking tops in a strong market going into Christmas is a tough go. Still, this indicator should get right and we should get an intermediate-term decline starting within, maybe, 4 weeks.
Nice call. Many key momentum stocks and $VIX showing reversal patterns today.
UBER and NOW are high probability shorts here. Holding Jan puts.
Edited by beta, 20 December 2023 - 05:00 PM.
