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Risk Windows for Week of 8 Jan & Why It Might Be Different This Time


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 08:18 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday the 8th of January and Friday the 12th.

 

Last weeks Tuesday the 2nd risk window tagged a top of some degree.  The Thursday the 4th risk window tagged the top of a retracement.  

 

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A drop of the 10 year minus 2 year yield below zero and a drop in the Conference Board LEI 6 month growth rate below minus 4% have in the past provided good leading indication of a pending recession, but so far at least not this time.  Why?  I blame the hyperbolic increase in funny money since the pandemic from the Treasury/Fed amalgamation for the apparent failure of these leading indicators.  Maybe a recession will appear this year and redeem these indicators, but it doesn't look certain at this point.   I believe the unintended consequences of this mad magic money printing such as inflation have yet to fully develop and will in all likelihood in the fullness of time offset any good effects of preventing a recession.  The piper must be paid in full.  The only thing you can change is who pays him and when he's paid.  

 

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Regards,

Douglas



#2 4caster

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 07:38 PM

Hi Douglas, thanks for the comments about Coppock and thanks for your chart. All the best to you.