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#1 4caster

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Posted 23 January 2024 - 08:34 AM

Campbell Harvey, the 'inventor' of the inverted yield curve and a researcher at Duke University,

said during the Forward Guidance podcast on Jan. 11th that he thinks that a recession will begin

this year during the 1st or 2nd Q. We'll soon find out if he's right or wrong.



#2 4caster

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Posted 23 January 2024 - 11:18 AM

This morning 3M, a well managed company, announced that its' earnings for 2024 will come in below

estimates. Also, this morning Bill Gross who is the head of Pimco said that he thinks the FED needs

to start lowering rates now to avoid a recession. At some point the Bulls are going to be forced to come

to grips with economic reality. When will that happen? I have no clue.



#3 12SPX

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Posted 23 January 2024 - 11:58 AM

Very true been what I have been talking about for awhile.  My question is when will bonds rally on recession worries and stocks sell off instead of rally on it.  It seems February and March could be very interesting this year!! 



#4 4caster

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Posted 23 January 2024 - 12:07 PM

Just a short while ago this morning the Conference Board released its' Leading Economic Index (LEI).

It reported that the LEI dropped by 0.1% in Dec. which follows a decline of 0.5% in Nov. and 0.8% in

Oct. In the report it says, "Overall, we expect GDP to turn negative in Q2 & Q3 this year" i.e. a recession.



#5 MikeyG

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Posted 23 January 2024 - 03:29 PM

A small recession would be a positive for the market as the interest rates would come down quite a bit without crushing the economy. 

 

Forced liquidations and with a nasty recession, well that's another story, one I am not seeing right now due to persistent labor demand. 


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#6 4caster

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Posted 23 January 2024 - 09:58 PM

So, a recession will be a good thing for the mkt because it'll bring down interest rates. That's a new

one on me. Oh well, I've traded irrational mkts before.