J C PARETS: "You can see the new highs in the Dow this week after a 6000 points rally in just 3 months. But with those new highs in prices, came a strong rollover in momentum.
It makes perfect sense with the divergences we're seeing High Beta vs Low Volatility. You can also see it in the rotation into defensive stocks.
If it was just one data point, or just one chart pointing to a dramatic increase in vulnerability for stocks, then that would be one thing.
But it's not just one of them. It's most of them.
And that's why we got so short this week.
All the things we were waiting for to get short, started to come to fruition. So why wouldn't we get short?"
RUG PULL ahead!
Started by
dTraderB
, Feb 04 2024 05:59 PM
120 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 06:00 PM
https://allstarchart...ll/#more-251662
J C PARETS: "You can see the new highs in the Dow this week after a 6000 points rally in just 3 months. But with those new highs in prices, came a strong rollover in momentum.
It makes perfect sense with the divergences we're seeing High Beta vs Low Volatility. You can also see it in the rotation into defensive stocks.
If it was just one data point, or just one chart pointing to a dramatic increase in vulnerability for stocks, then that would be one thing.
But it's not just one of them. It's most of them.
And that's why we got so short this week.
All the things we were waiting for to get short, started to come to fruition. So why wouldn't we get short?"
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 06:06 PM
HEDGING in the actual market trading & PAID COMMENTARY is essential, LOL:
FUNDSTRAT:
CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) posted at 4:16 PM on Fri, Feb 02, 2024:
"If this is a strong market, 5,000 [on the S&P 500] won't mean anything. But in February, 5,000 could be a short-term top before there's a big air pocket. It's a level to watch," says @fundstrat
https://t.co/bmmVBseriI
(https://x.com/CNBCCl...3071465738?s=03)
FUNDSTRAT:
CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) posted at 4:16 PM on Fri, Feb 02, 2024:
"If this is a strong market, 5,000 [on the S&P 500] won't mean anything. But in February, 5,000 could be a short-term top before there's a big air pocket. It's a level to watch," says @fundstrat
https://t.co/bmmVBseriI
(https://x.com/CNBCCl...3071465738?s=03)
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 06:09 PM
This poll has been off the mark in recent weeks: slightly bullish, basically FLAT: 51-50 for the BULLS
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 2:05 PM on Sat, Feb 03, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish by a fraction.
In the last 6 weeks we've had 3 down votes and 3 up votes. That typically happens in a choppy market, although last July folks leaned quite bearish for 3/4 weeks.
Thanks for voting! https://t.co/mgMA6aaWlC
(https://x.com/hmeisl...3926088732?s=03)
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 2:05 PM on Sat, Feb 03, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish by a fraction.
In the last 6 weeks we've had 3 down votes and 3 up votes. That typically happens in a choppy market, although last July folks leaned quite bearish for 3/4 weeks.
Thanks for voting! https://t.co/mgMA6aaWlC
(https://x.com/hmeisl...3926088732?s=03)
#5
redfoliage2
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 06:31 PM
HEDGING in the actual market trading & PAID COMMENTARY is essential, LOL:
FUNDSTRAT:
CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) posted at 4:16 PM on Fri, Feb 02, 2024:
"If this is a strong market, 5,000 [on the S&P 500] won't mean anything. But in February, 5,000 could be a short-term top before there's a big air pocket. It's a level to watch," says @fundstrat
https://t.co/bmmVBseriI
(https://x.com/CNBCCl...3071465738?s=03)
It's a permabull, and if your a trader just ignore what it says ........................
Edited by redfoliage2, 04 February 2024 - 06:36 PM.
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 07:53 PM
Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
China Caixin services PMI (January)
Indonesia GDP (Q4)
Australia trade (December)
China Caixin services PMI (January)
Indonesia GDP (Q4)
Australia trade (December)
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 08:58 PM
Chinese version of PPT rallying A50 & HSI. Will close at least 2 each.
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 04 February 2024 - 09:02 PM
His team is a bit more bullish in recent mail:
"Strong January Could Signal Boost to Year-End Target
This was an important week for markets, with a myriad of macroeconomic catalysts. We learned a lot this week, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee told us, but the primary takeaway is that 2024 will be a challenging year, but ultimately positive just as January had zig-zags but ended up positive.
The S&P 500 ended up 1.59% for the month of January. Lee and his team examined data from the past 74 years, finding 28 instances in which the prior year saw gains of 15% or more, as we just did. January was a positive month in 13 out of those 28 instances. In these 13 historic analogs, the full-year return was positive 12 out of 13 times (92%), and the median full-year return was 16.3%. Remarked Lee, This suggests that our 5,200 [year-end] target might be low. Based on this January barometer, the possible upside to our S&P 500 target could be as high as 5,500 or more. (See our Chart of the Week below for details on this.)
Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton had similar thoughts about his year-end target for the S&P 500. In his 2024 outlook, Newton forecast a year-end target of 5,175, but this week, he admitted that like Tom, I suspect my original target might prove low. He added, Unfortunately for the bears, I dont suspect much will come of any correction at present, and any pullback likely does not undercut former early January highs near 4802. Looking further out, he said, My work suggests that Treasury yields likely start a larger period of decline from March into August which should coincide with a more broad-based stock market rally.
Arguably the most important and most closely watched of last weeks catalysts was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31. Though the FOMC kept rates unchanged, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on hopes for a March cut during the post-meeting press conference. Stocks sank immediately afterwards but rebounded on Thursday in an apparent sign of market strength.
Lee believes that the odds of a March cut are higher than the immediate post-FOMC market reaction suggests. Powell acknowledged declining inflation and spoke of trying to identify when to begin the process of dialing back the restrictive level. In my view, Lee said, this means that the Fed is getting ready to cut, and this is a good thing. But Wednesdays FOMC statement also tells us that the Fed and markets will continue to struggle with what that framework is.
"Strong January Could Signal Boost to Year-End Target
This was an important week for markets, with a myriad of macroeconomic catalysts. We learned a lot this week, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee told us, but the primary takeaway is that 2024 will be a challenging year, but ultimately positive just as January had zig-zags but ended up positive.
The S&P 500 ended up 1.59% for the month of January. Lee and his team examined data from the past 74 years, finding 28 instances in which the prior year saw gains of 15% or more, as we just did. January was a positive month in 13 out of those 28 instances. In these 13 historic analogs, the full-year return was positive 12 out of 13 times (92%), and the median full-year return was 16.3%. Remarked Lee, This suggests that our 5,200 [year-end] target might be low. Based on this January barometer, the possible upside to our S&P 500 target could be as high as 5,500 or more. (See our Chart of the Week below for details on this.)
Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton had similar thoughts about his year-end target for the S&P 500. In his 2024 outlook, Newton forecast a year-end target of 5,175, but this week, he admitted that like Tom, I suspect my original target might prove low. He added, Unfortunately for the bears, I dont suspect much will come of any correction at present, and any pullback likely does not undercut former early January highs near 4802. Looking further out, he said, My work suggests that Treasury yields likely start a larger period of decline from March into August which should coincide with a more broad-based stock market rally.
Arguably the most important and most closely watched of last weeks catalysts was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31. Though the FOMC kept rates unchanged, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on hopes for a March cut during the post-meeting press conference. Stocks sank immediately afterwards but rebounded on Thursday in an apparent sign of market strength.
Lee believes that the odds of a March cut are higher than the immediate post-FOMC market reaction suggests. Powell acknowledged declining inflation and spoke of trying to identify when to begin the process of dialing back the restrictive level. In my view, Lee said, this means that the Fed is getting ready to cut, and this is a good thing. But Wednesdays FOMC statement also tells us that the Fed and markets will continue to struggle with what that framework is.
It's a permabull, and if your a trader just ignore what it says ........................HEDGING in the actual market trading & PAID COMMENTARY is essential, LOL:
FUNDSTRAT:
CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) posted at 4:16 PM on Fri, Feb 02, 2024:
"If this is a strong market, 5,000 [on the S&P 500] won't mean anything. But in February, 5,000 could be a short-term top before there's a big air pocket. It's a level to watch," says @fundstrat
https://t.co/bmmVBseriI
(https://x.com/CNBCCl...3071465738?s=03)
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 05 February 2024 - 06:28 AM
US$ now trading at 104
I predict my META & AMZN PUTS will double or triple... soon! Of course, they are at incredibly low value, especially META but coukd be already 50% from lows last week.
In more substantial matters, after a volatile session, CHINA A50 & HK had a great MONDAY in ASIAN session with my new 2024 aggressive ST trading & following market movements resulting from intervention bythe "STATE TEAM" there.
Most likely, I will add LONGS as they drop kn US session.
"The reality check on the rate outlook lifted the dollar to an eight-week high against other major currencies, while the yen slipped to a two-month low. Asian equities slid, with stocks in China stuck in the doldrums." -- REUTERS
I predict my META & AMZN PUTS will double or triple... soon! Of course, they are at incredibly low value, especially META but coukd be already 50% from lows last week.
In more substantial matters, after a volatile session, CHINA A50 & HK had a great MONDAY in ASIAN session with my new 2024 aggressive ST trading & following market movements resulting from intervention bythe "STATE TEAM" there.
Most likely, I will add LONGS as they drop kn US session.
"The reality check on the rate outlook lifted the dollar to an eight-week high against other major currencies, while the yen slipped to a two-month low. Asian equities slid, with stocks in China stuck in the doldrums." -- REUTERS
