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Risk Windows and the Ides of March


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 03:28 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday February 12th and Friday February 16th.  There are minor humps on Tuesday the 13th and Thursday the 15th which might smear the risk window into an adjacent day for a few hours, but they are not so large that I thought it was worthwhile to widened the risk windows.

 

Last week the Wednesday the 7th risk window had a very big risk signal, and it turned out to be a very big disappointment.  It just tagged the beginning of a multiday consolidation looking thingy, maybe a 4th wave of some sort (see my short term EWave publisher's remorse below).

 

kQiVhmt.png

 

The short term EWave posts last week were complete crap, wrong before the ink was dry.  I kept trying to call a top.   I won't insult you by trying a short term count again this week. Suffice it to say that my longer term "B" count is running out of runway to be correct if the DJIA doesn't head down soon.  If this market Caesar DJIA hasn't been stabbed to death by the ides of March, my longer term count will join the short term counts in the trash can.

 

As a sucker for symmetry, I find the triangle in the DJIA/Gold plot below interesting.  I assume it will break up, so higher DJIA or lower gold coming in the not too distant future.  If the Fed has really defeated the inflation dragon (shameless hat tip to the CNY) and if my longer term DJIA EWave count is correct, then lower gold would be the better bet, but those are both big IF's.  

 

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Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 11 February 2024 - 03:29 AM.


#2 Douglas

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 11:51 AM

This past week I posted plots of the NYSE AD line and of the NYSE stocks above their 50 & 200 SMA casting aspersions on the index positing that there is internal rot.  To ad insult to injury to this index, I submit the following two additional plots of the NYSE common stock cumulative volume and the cumulative highs minus lows which both show similar internal malignancy in 2024.  As I was chided in responses to the posts, divergences can resolve by the indicator catching up to the index or they can simply go on for years with no consequences.  Both are possible, but considering all the potential black swans currently up in the air only a stone's throw from Broad and Wall, I suspect that luck (or the Fed which prints its own green-inked paper version of luck) will have to have an outsized hand in any such happy outcome.

 

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Regards.

Douglas



#3 Waver

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 06:00 AM

You mentioned Wave B - Wave B from October 2022 lows?

#4 Douglas

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 05:54 PM

Waver, my count is shown below.  The "B" began its twisted life in October 2022 as you speculated and should end its wretched existence soon while giving birth to a nasty "C" wave down.  Given my luck and EWave skill I hold out little hope that the DJIA will be so kind as to evolve as I propose, but I suppose you've got to have a plan A even if you know you'll probably have to fall back on your plan B. 

 

 

BLufzEy.png

 

Regards,

Douglas