According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday February 12th and Friday February 16th. There are minor humps on Tuesday the 13th and Thursday the 15th which might smear the risk window into an adjacent day for a few hours, but they are not so large that I thought it was worthwhile to widened the risk windows.
Last week the Wednesday the 7th risk window had a very big risk signal, and it turned out to be a very big disappointment. It just tagged the beginning of a multiday consolidation looking thingy, maybe a 4th wave of some sort (see my short term EWave publisher's remorse below).
The short term EWave posts last week were complete crap, wrong before the ink was dry. I kept trying to call a top. I won't insult you by trying a short term count again this week. Suffice it to say that my longer term "B" count is running out of runway to be correct if the DJIA doesn't head down soon. If this market Caesar DJIA hasn't been stabbed to death by the ides of March, my longer term count will join the short term counts in the trash can.
As a sucker for symmetry, I find the triangle in the DJIA/Gold plot below interesting. I assume it will break up, so higher DJIA or lower gold coming in the not too distant future. If the Fed has really defeated the inflation dragon (shameless hat tip to the CNY) and if my longer term DJIA EWave count is correct, then lower gold would be the better bet, but those are both big IF's.
Edited by Douglas, 11 February 2024 - 03:29 AM.