182 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

First CHINA - BULLISH in expectation of more STATE promises & incentives. I hold very small A50 & HSI LONGS
"With the MSCI World, Japanese Nikkei 225, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Europe's STOXX 600 indexes all finishing last week at record highs, Asian markets kick off the new week on Monday with a strong global tailwind behind them.

The resilience of the U.S. economy, cooling inflation and an artificial intelligence-fueled frenzy in big tech are setting the positive tone globally, which should put a spring in Asian markets' step on Monday."

[dTraderB]

"Investors await National People's Congress
The annual National People's Congress in Beijing opens on Tuesday and what is laid out by parliament could go a long way to determining the 2024 path for assets in China. And beyond.

Premier Li Qiang will lay out Beijing's annual growth and other economic targets, and - crucially - a plan for achieving them."

First CHINA - BULLISH in expectation of more STATE promises & incentives. I hold very small A50 & HSI LONGS
"With the MSCI World, Japanese Nikkei 225, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Europe's STOXX 600 indexes all finishing last week at record highs, Asian markets kick off the new week on Monday with a strong global tailwind behind them.

The resilience of the U.S. economy, cooling inflation and an artificial intelligence-fueled frenzy in big tech are setting the positive tone globally, which should put a spring in Asian markets' step on Monday."

[dTraderB]

60-40 BULLISH POLL! More than just LEANING - overcrowding on one part of the deck..

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 3:55 PM on Sat, Mar 02, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish this week.

Thanks for voting! https://t.co/E1IupBf3NG
(https://x.com/hmeisl...8339788239?s=03)

[dTraderB]

SENTIMENT TRADER:
An explosive end to a calm streak
Key points:

The S&P 500 went nearly a full year without a +/- 2% daily change
That ended last week with an explosive move higher
Similar behavior led to gains over the next year every time, with one caveat
The S&P ended a long calm period by exploding higher

We've seen recently that the most benchmarked index in the world has enjoyed one of the longest-ever stretches of calm moves while tacking on significant gains.

It finally ended that period of calm, but not in the usual way. Instead of volatility rising by stocks dropping, it did the opposite. The S&P ended one of its longest-ever stretches without a +/- 2% daily change by rallying strongly on the back of NVDA's earnings report.

https://mailchi.mp/s...st?e=b27dc45da1

[dTraderB]

FUNDSTRAT:
3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI
3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services
3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book
3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity
3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report

[dTraderB]

FS SNAPSHOT:

Can Equities Continue to Break Records?
Much of this week was somewhat range-bound, at least compared to the wild ride that Nvidia ( NVDA 4.47% ) sparked the week before. Nevertheless, stocks continued their advance. The Nasdaq hit an all-time high close, breaking a record set in 2021. The S&P 500 also notched fresh new highs, and on Thursday it celebrated Leap Day by extending its monthly win streak to four.

With the bulk of earnings season having passed, investors resumed focusing on inflation data and what the Federal Reserves response might be. Two weeks ago, markets sank on a higher-than-expected January CPI reading, even though January seasonal surges in inflation readings are not unusual. CPI tends to foreshadow PCE, so although Core PCE MoM came in on Thursday at 0.4% the biggest monthly jump since January 2023, the reading was roughly in line with Street expectations, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose afterward. There were no major revelations in the PCE numbers, but the markets reaction tells me there is still gas in the tank, Lee remarked on Thursday.

Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton has a similar opinion. In his view, equity trends show no evidence of wavering. Until or unless last weeks lows are challenged (4946 for SPX), SPX very well can continue its rise into mid-March without much trouble, technically.

The weeks market action also suggests that the rally is broadening. As Newton pointed out, RSP 0.70% , the equal-weighted S&P 500, logged a new all-time high monthly and weekly close. In fact, the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the S&P 500 index this week.

FUNDSTRAT:
3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI
3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services
3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book
3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity
3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report

[dTraderB]

Closed 1 A50 LONG 11907
Closed 1 HSI LONG 16620

[dTraderB]

BUY LIMIT A50 11860
BUY LIMIT HSI 16450
Close ES HEDGE LONG 5160
Close NQ HEDGE LING 18380

Closed 1 A50 LONG 11907
Closed 1 HSI LONG 16620

[dTraderB]

BARRON'S:
March 4, 2024

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Dreamstime
This Stock Market Is a Juggernaut, Why Its Historic Run Could Continue. And 5 Other Things to Know Before Markets Open.
Another week in the green and it will be the S&P 500s best run since 1964.

It racked up another week of gains on Friday. As Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid points out, that makes 16 positive weeks out of the last 18 for the first time since 1971.

Its hard to see whats going to derail the juggernaut. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress this week, but the central banks thinking is pretty well known. No interest-rate cuts for now, maybe some later in the year. Stock traders have shrugged as pricing for the first reduction gets pushed further back. They seem to be fixated on the latest developments with artificial intelligence.

Theres a jobs report coming on Friday. Regardless of what it says, it will still be the case that the labor market is fairly tight, even as inflation is weakening.

In short, news this week would have to be a huge shock to change the trajectory of stocks steady climb.

At the same time, nothing lasts forever. In investing, as with comedy, timing is everything.

If its true that stocks will move in anticipation of the economic cycle, its worth wondering what part of the cycle were in. The peak is usually described as the point when the economy starts to overheat. Then, usually in a whirlwind of faster inflation, higher interest rates, and a slowdown in consumer spending, it will start to contract.

Its hard enough to know when a cycle is turning at the best of times. But all of our signals are scrambled now. Inflation is slowing. Unemployment has been historically low for two years. The Fed has already jacked up interest rates. And yet consumers keep spending.

So it isnt at all clear that the peak is nigh. But it might be. At some point, investors will have to make a judgment about when to pull back to avoid getting burned.

Brian Swint

[dTraderB]

"Powell's key congressional testimonies this week, starting at the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and reprised at the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The critical February jobs report is also out Friday."
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks
U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
U.S. corp earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland, GitLab, Viant Technology, Eos Energy etc