16 replies to this topic

[andr99]

in those stocks of the italian stock market I wrote here in September. Nice important gain.......they were all banks. Now I will stay watching at the window with regards to italy, but I don't think 

America has arrived yet. Probably there will be a rotation from the banking sector to other sectors which could justify why the stock market in italy seems ready to correct

(the banks here represent large part of the main index) while America doesn't.  

 

btw..........I won't give another time my positions, one time is enough. 

Edited by andr99, 18 March 2024 - 08:20 AM.

[andr99]

I'm almost sure there is a rotation in the making. Banks here are done to me. They had a nice upwards ride thanks to increasing central banks' rates. The message the banks here are sending now is that rates will be

lowered very soon. Our main index is based on the banks so that when our banks correct, it's the whole index that comes down. But if rates are lowered, there are other sectors that wll rise..................in other indexes,

not in ours which is so influenced by the banks. 

Edited by andr99, 18 March 2024 - 09:01 AM.

[SemiBizz]

What kind of market is this?  You closed out all your long positions and I closed out short positions...

 

I can understand it, these banks don't act very well.

 

$NYCB could be a candidate for another "FDIC Friday"

[andr99]

What kind of market is this?  You closed out all your long positions and I closed out short positions...

 

I can understand it, these banks don't act very well.

 

$NYCB could be a candidate for another "FDIC Friday"

 

Unicredit has gone parabolic and has almost reached the target I had at 34. I take Unicredit as a good signal for all the other banks of ours so that I'm out of our banks. As I said, I think rates will come down soon

and other sectors will take advantage of that. In any case from September 2023 our banks are up more or less 50% which added to the fact that I had initiated to get long on them one year before, right at their bottom,

in September 2022 when I called here the whole western markets' bottom.......that is a nice performance. In September 2023 I was asked to prove how I trade. I accepted the challenge and wrote....''long now on these

italian banks'' and I gave three names well conscious that the target was much higher than where we were sitting back then. So that I have proven at least a 50% gain, but the whole gain is a lot more. No matter, reputation counts nothing, money counts more.         

Edited by andr99, 18 March 2024 - 10:23 AM.

[SemiBizz]

Well, there are huge structural issues out here globally and concentrated in the 2 dominant parties = U.S. and China.

 

Specifically Commercial Real Estate Bust.  Those elephants are not going away.

[andr99]

I'm relaxing now................listening to good sound helps

 

 

I need to upgrade my hi-fi loudspeakers, however..............they're not cheap, but not so good either 

Edited by andr99, 18 March 2024 - 03:31 PM.

[andr99]

I'm optimistic about the US market. I said it before. It's election year and it will be bullish. I think they make it rise until September-October, then they will take a pause and subsequently if the one 

I think wins, the American stock market might go on bullish irrational mode till January. Now, I'm relaxing, but I'm already planning to enter the US stock market. Good luck everybody with your trades.   

Just my personal thoughts and by the way in the short term I have no idea what the US market can do, particularly in April. 

Edited by andr99, 19 March 2024 - 08:45 AM.

[pdx5]

I am not so optimistic about US market in 2024 even if it is election year.

I think there are too many structural problems coming together, the perfect storm as they say.

Commercial real estate is the  elephant in room as SemiBizz pointed out.

Then inflation in US is nowhere down close to FED target of 2%. Which means rates will stay high.

US Treasury is paying out more in interest, even more than defense budget next fiscal year.

Federal budget deficit is growing, not shrinking.

Ukraine war shows no signs of ending.

China has real-estate bubble to contend with.

House prices in US are unaffordable to first time buyers.

And then in my opinion, the biggest mastodon in the room, record high credit card debt in US.

Only good thing is unemployment is still low, but it could change suddenly.

[andr99]

I trade the patterns I see, not the structural problems of economy that may go on for ages before being resolved in one way or another. The ''economy's gurus'' that 

rule the west may find the solution to these structural problems or may not. We might default or not, but for sure it won't be tomorrow.   

Edited by andr99, 20 March 2024 - 05:24 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

 

What kind of market is this?  You closed out all your long positions and I closed out short positions...

 

I can understand it, these banks don't act very well.

 

$NYCB could be a candidate for another "FDIC Friday"

 

Unicredit has gone parabolic and has almost reached the target I had at 34. I take Unicredit as a good signal for all the other banks of ours so that I'm out of our banks. As I said, I think rates will come down soon

and other sectors will take advantage of that. In any case from September 2023 our banks are up more or less 50% which added to the fact that I had initiated to get long on them one year before, right at their bottom,

in September 2022 when I called here the whole western markets' bottom.......that is a nice performance. In September 2023 I was asked to prove how I trade. I accepted the challenge and wrote....''long now on these

italian banks'' and I gave three names well conscious that the target was much higher than where we were sitting back then. So that I have proven at least a 50% gain, but the whole gain is a lot more. No matter, reputation counts nothing, money counts more.         

 

I wanted to compliment you on a really nice trade. I was watching.

 

Mark