5 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

https://www.tradingv...com/x/R00NaKvP/

[Douglas]

Don, good to see you posting again.  From the chart you linked to, the best analogy of today would appear to be the 1986-1987 period in the first red circle.  Your 86 month cycle peaked in 1986, but the market then proceeded to relatively quickly make a higher high in 1987 and crashed a few months later in October 1987.  In today's market your cycle again peaked at a lower top in late 2021, and now the market is heading to a higher high and may also be marching toward another crash given all the AI, etc. craziness.  The other relatively recent peaks in your 86 month cycle circled in yellow peaked more or less coincident with the market peak and gradually worked higher to a new peak past the middle of the cycle. 

 

So it would appear you are right in that your chart calls for a higher high which is in the process of working out, but it also might just be calling for a subsequent crash in the not too dark and distant future and of course the next higher peak somewhere in 2029 or so.

 

 

P.S.  thanks for posting a new cycle which was heretofore unknown to me which I will now add to my tracking list.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 24 March 2024 - 02:41 AM.

[4caster]

Relying on the 86 mos. cycle can be very dicey. Here are some examples. 1. 2001-2004 - cycle up, mkt. down.

2. 2004-2007 - cycle down, mkt up. 3. 2008-2009 - cycle up, mkt down. 4. 2011-2015 - cycle down, mkt up.

And btw, this past week lululemon and Darden Restaurants reported that 2024 earnings estimates on the

part of the Broad & Wall folks are too high because they pointed out that they see a meaningful change in

consumer spending resulting in a decline in demand for their products. Does this matter to the Bulls? 

I doubt it.

[Douglas]

4caster, an 86 month cycle is a rough tool, a bit like playing horse shoes or hand grenades, close is often good enough.  Also, the very neat cycle shapes are not useful, they are just spacers, only the sharp valleys matter which are indicating the highs in this case.  Don could have just used vertical bars to indicate the location of the highs.  Most of the cycles that I track are based on lows.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[12SPX]

Always love the perfectly drawn trendlines on long term charts wayyyyy after the fact.  If your going to make a prediction lets see it drawn before the rally has occured lol!! 

[4caster]

Douglas, I agree with you that "the very neat cycle shapes are not useful, they are just spaces"

And SPX, I agree with you that these type of charts are "after the fact".