4 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA over the next week or so are Monday March 25th through the morning of Tuesday March 26th and the afternoon of Thursday the 28th through Monday April 1st.

 

Last week the Friday the 15th through Monday the 18th risk window tagged a nice low.  The Wednesday 20th of March Fed day risk window caught Powell's "...cuts are coming this year" acceleration up.   The system didn't catch the Thursday high, so it will be interesting to see this high amounts to anything given the risk window this coming Monday/Tuesday.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

[Douglas]

A few weeks ago I posted the NYSE common stock AD line in red below.  The divergence with the NYSE index line in black present then still persists but is starting to "heal" and may disappear if this rally accelerates.  For now this divergence more or less still supports my badly battered "B" wave count if you bend the orthodox Elliott Wave rules a bit, but only just.  I continue to post short term counts showing an end to the "B" up which continue to be almost immediately invalidated.  Any energetic acceleration up from here would likely confirm the fallacy of my count.  

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

How soon they forget.  The plot below shows a little nasty Nasdaq history.  The first little peak was the dot com bubble, which everyone agrees was a bubble.  Now miles higher and folks can't see a bubble.  I see a double bubble on steroids courtesy of the Fed super money pump.  What will be the pin that pricks this one, or maybe more accurately who will be prick that pins it?  

 

 

 Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

Einstein supposedly once said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result.  That pretty much describes my short term EWave posts.  I do it over and over and they all invalidate within hours of being posted.  Below in two plots is my latest manifestation of crazy.  Of course, the count structure probably breaks a half a dozen orthodox EWave counting rules, but that's never stopped me before.  The channel in the shorter term second plot of just the 5th wave is just so neat that I couldn't help myself.  Also since one of the annual stock market crash windows starts near the end of next week, I thought that another futile top prediction was called for.  

 

 

 

Yours insanely,

Douglas

[hhh]

If it makes you feel any better, there's no evidence Einstein said that. And thanks for your posts.