The Sahm Rule was created by former FED economist Claudia Sahm. The rule goes like this.
If the current 3 mo. average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% points over the lowest reading
during the past 12 mos. a recession occurs. The lowest reading in the past 12 mos. was 3.4%
in April of 2023. The unemployment rate in Feb. was 3.9%. If the Mar. & April readings are at
least 3.9% the 3 mo. average would be 0.5% above the April reading giving a recession signal.
If the rates in Mar. & April are not above 3.9% all bets are off. When this rule was back-tested
it was shown to have predicted every recession in modern history and, more importantly I think,
it didn't predict a recession that didn't occur. We'll see what happens in the next 2 mos.