9 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Gimme Shelter

 

Quiz: On how many days in the last 100 years has SPX closed -0.88% or more, coincident with two-to-one or better NYSE Advance/Decline Ratio?

[4caster]

Excellent, thoughtful and well documented forecast. Thanks for taking the time to put it on here.

[IYB]

Thank you for the feedback, 4caster.

 

Today is an example of the "NSS" discussed in the article.

 

Good Trading, D

[4caster]

The MACD(12,26,9) on the daily SPX chart is in oversold territory at -35. On the other hand, the

MACD(12,26,9) on the weekly SPX chart is in overbought territory at +153. These configurations

are giving diametrically opposed signals. I've never previously seen a 188 pt. spread between these

two configurations. They're going to have to figure out how to get in sync. Will the daily go up or will

the weekly go down? We'll soon find out.

[IYB]

Great observation. Thanks.

 

I hadn't looked at the weekly here. I'll be researching that spread on a historical basis. 

[4caster]

I'd be interested to see the results of your research about this. This morning S&P Global released

its' economic survey for April. The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to a 4 mo. low of 49.9 in April from

51.9 in March. The U.S. services PMI fell to a 5 mo. low of 50.9 in April from 54.0 in March. New

Orders fell for the first time in 6 mos. Companies pointed out that for the first time in 4 years they

are going to scale back employment and that they are pessimistic about the rest of 2024. This is

further evidence that the U.S. economy is weakening and is going to get weaker.

[blustar]

Good stuff, IYB. Today the old guard is getting hit the hardest, which tells me that the new generals are going to mount 3 more big series of rallies ahead "the last one the biggest", with two more declines, "the last one the biggest". The current cycle/wave structure demands it, too, with BIG swings ahead "both ways" into a final crescendo top around May 22/23, at least that is the way I see it now. I don't think we see a crash low until late June, that follows a perfect 4.25 year cycle and some of the other things I'm seeing such as the bullish Jupiter/Uranus conjunction in Taurus last weekend, which historical context suggests that a low occurs right before it then goes up for some weeks at least. We all have something to learn from each other. I suspect that Friday's irregular action, will go the opposite of what we might expect. Thx so much for your well thought out posts. Indeed the times are-a-changin'........ 

Edited by blustar, 25 April 2024 - 11:46 AM.

[blustar]

IYB,

 

I think your lower low will be in the Old Guard and the NDX/SPX will make a higher low today after the gap up. I see a BIG inside day or Engulfing Cloud. Here is what I sent out to my subs this morning:

 

This means that the DJI and DJT are likely to do the opposite of last week and make new lows, while the NDX and SPX create a BIG POS D. The SPX 5105/06 level may be tested in the first 30 minutes, then by close to day's end, the SPX may test the 4069/70 level!

 

Thx!

 

blu

[blustar]

IYB,

 

I now believe you are right, a new low by Tuesday on the Capricorn moon, maybe 4924... I was following 9's instead of 7's on Gann Cycle TD's, Average is an octave or 8). I think a big gap down is coming Tuesday.

 

blu

[blustar]

Today's info:

 

Charlie is looking for a low on early May 1 +/- 2 TD's. An ideal top is due on the open Tuesday, the 4 TD top (no later than on the open Wednesday @ +1). This Y wave is highly irregular. Wave [w] was 5 TD's long and finished on WED late week. We are now tracing out an x-y-z [x] wave that should take us to new lows by no later than Friday this week, which would be an 8+2 low

 

Venus > enters Taurus today as Mars conjoins Neptune, followed by Mars > Aries tomorrow, then Venus sq.'s Pluto (debt, downgrades, depression, disease) right at the waning moon at Aquarius on early Wednesday. Thursday sees Pluto > Rx and early Friday Mars in Aries sextiles Pluto Rx.

 

Lows following a FED decision usually come on the Friday following. We'll see. Could be Monday...the day before the new moon....