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Risk Windows for This Week and Make Hay While the Sun Shines


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 22 May 2024 - 04:04 PM

Better late than never I suppose.  Been busy this week with visitors from America.  The risk window this week stretches from today, Wednesday May 22nd, thru Friday the 24th, a bit wide with the highest reading today.

 

Last week's Tuesday risk window caught a low and Thursdays caught the first high in a double top of some degree with the Monday the 20th one catching the second part, not too shabby.

 

HgvoznA.png

The QQQ low volume top indicator that I posted about is screaming sell once again.  Maybe this time it will work, but given NVDA's earning out after the close, I can't imagine that there won't be an index rally tomorrow of some sort for at least a while, but at some point NVDA's crazy money making machine is going to foment some serious competition which I'm sure is working 24/7 on their own AI chip design.  When  that alternative comes to light, NVDA's going to hit a stop bridging air pocket as big as that flight to Singapore, but of course I suppose the brave can still make hay while the sun shines as long as they keep their seat belt fastened.

 

lsd22Xh.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 22 May 2024 - 04:07 PM.


#2 steadyquest

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Posted 27 May 2024 - 01:49 PM

With the deficit spending and fed-backed liquidity and corporate buybacks one can make hay with AI. industrials, small caps or just about any and all assets, apart from maybe some commercial real estate in a few mismanaged cities.  Even alchemy is paying off these days - turning dollars into gold.  Here's a 4-bagger that could become a 16-bagger.  Just don't forget to unfasten your seat belt and strap on a chute when nearing peak altitude.

HMY-UUP.png   



#3 Douglas

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Posted 28 May 2024 - 02:30 AM

Steadyquest, given the high correlation between HMY and the metal it digs out of the ground shown below, in order for HMY to rise four fold, you must also believe that gold is going to 9300 $/oz.  Short term that probably means a dollar crisis and that means that the big reset has probably begun.  At that point you probably will want to invest instead in another metal, lead, and something to project it at a high speed.

 

hfTFfxm.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 steadyquest

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Posted 28 May 2024 - 01:46 PM

At peak HMY I've got GLD at  32.425 / 0.1767  = 183.50 (pretty much unchanged)

and I've got UUP at  973.793 / 32.425 = 30.03 (pretty much unchanged)

These charts use dividend-adjusted prices (blue ADJ switch at lower right corner).

HMY.png

 

HMY-GLD.png

 

For perspective, historical HMY / GLD prices.

HMY-GLD2.png



#5 Douglas

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Posted 28 May 2024 - 05:55 PM

Maybe HMY is repeating the green pattern below from the late 1990's when it broke out without much of a change in gold if the red expanding pattern is broken sharply to the upside with little gold reaction.  

 

6QFWS8K.png

 

Regards,

Douglas