3 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

It's a long shot, but DX has every right to bottom here.

[redfoliage2]

USD may replace YEN as the next workhorse for carry trade.  Stocks, Gold, and RE are likely on LT bull market .............................................

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 August 2024 - 06:21 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

One thing about the Low Dollar is that it will lessen the chances of the FED lowering the rate.    Don't get me wrong.   I do believe they will lower 1/4 point with a neutral stance afterwards.   There is enough weakness in housing and auto to signal a 1/4 pt cut.   Inflation appears to be headed in the right direction at the moment as well.

[Douglas]

linrom1, the plot below is a mixed bag for the dollar.  The red channel would seem to say that it could go lower to tag the bottom of the channel, but the green arrow marked commitment of trader narrowing of the commercial and large trader positions gap appears to be saying that a low is just behind us and the more likely direction is up.  Hard to know which will win.  I hope that the bird that J. Powell lets fly at his Jackson Hole speech tomorrow may clarify things, dove and down, hawk and up.  Not sure what we will get if it's a chicken, or he just lays an egg.   I guess that my Fx predictions are just for the birds.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 22 August 2024 - 01:23 AM.