2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the windows with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are the afternoon of Monday August 26th thru Tuesday the 27th and a window stretching from Thursday August 29th thru the morning of Friday August 30th.

 

Last week the Monday - Tuesday morning risk window caught a short term flat top which only lasted a couple of days, not a dud, but not all that helpful either.  The Thursday - Friday morning risk window caught the low before the Powell pivot rally, a bit more helpful depending on the action this coming Monday.  

 

Last week I posted several charts showing a turn somewhere in the vicinity of Friday August 23rd thru Monday the 26th.  Not sure if that Thursday afternoon low the day before Powell promised to turn the money pumps back on was what these cycles were sniffing out, or if it's something that going to happen early this coming week.  Stay tuned to this channel.

 

Unbelievably my EWave count is still alive expecting a modest correction down before a final push higher to finish the "B" wave that I've been droning on about for so long.  Given the strong market, I hold out little hope that this count will still be drawing breath this time next week.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

Upside down.  Week of August 26th, not August 29th.  

 

Doug

[Douglas]

This past week I also posted a marked up Finviz.com chart similar to the one below showing two opposing forces acting on the dollar:  (1) the trend line channel which would seem to be bearish calling for a lower dollar over the next few months and (2) the Large Traders commitment data break out from a flat zone near zero at the orange arrow which has been bullish in the past. 

 

Powell in J Hole put his thumb on the bearish side of the scales driving the dollar toward the red trend line.   It seems Powell is no longer actually serious about fighting inflation, since you would think he would want a strong dollar to hold down  the cost of the massive amount of US imports.  Clearly he has ended his inflation campaign just in time for a presidential one.  I suspect that as long as energy cooperates and stays flat to down, then Powell may get away with spiking the inflation football on the 3 (percent that is) yard line. If he's unlucky, he'll go straight from Paul Volcker praise to Arthur Burns infamy. 

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 24 August 2024 - 11:04 PM.