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Risk Windows for the Week of 3 September


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 01 September 2024 - 12:53 AM

Wednesday the 4th of September and Friday the 6th have pretty good risk window system values and should see a turn or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA.

 

Last week the risk system had a so-so signal for a risk window from about noon on Monday the 26th through Tuesday the 27th of August and another much better signal pointing at risk on Thursday August 30th through about mid-day Friday the 30th.  The first window was pretty much a dud missing the top Monday morning and the bottom on Wednesday.  The Thursday risk window did catch a top, but it looks like it will only last a few hours, so dud too.  Oh well, some weeks you win, and some are like last week.

 

v4T4e3B.png

 

In the spirit of following-up on old predictions, way back on July 27th I published the IWM triangle focus turn projections shown below using the H-L-C and close only plots to see which one would do better at hitting a turn.  Well, it looks like the close one was better.

 

t5IDlx2.png

 

3NDuTm3.png

 

On August 5th I published the DJIA H-L-C turn predicting triangle below. 

 

9M8XXaB.png

 

Like the IWM triangle, I should have used the closing price version shown below.  You live and learn.

 

eVkdYxX.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 03 September 2024 - 09:40 AM

Looks like I might have been too quick in my harsh judgement of last Thursday's risk window.  Based on action this morning, it looks like it tagged a top which had a failed test late Friday.  Interesting to see what that means for tomorrow's risk window, optimistically a low and turn up, pessimistically an acceleration down.  The only thing that I see on the calendar of interest is the Jolt's employment numbers.  

 

RuYoLfr.png

 

Regards,

Douglas