2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

My risk summation system indicates that the windows this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Wednesday September 18th through the morning of Thursday the 19th and Friday the 20th.

 

Last week the Wednesday the 11th risk window tagged a nice low.  As always, the jury is still out on the Friday the 13th risk window.  The Friday the 6th risk window the week before turned out to be a dud tagging a low that only held for a couple of days.

 

Of course this coming Wednesday is Fed pumping day with a cut baked in the cake.  So we'll be eating cake, just how big a slice we'll get is the only question.  The Fed is cutting with gold hitting a record high, inflation in the 3% range even using the baloney BLS numbers, the DJIA within spitting distance of a record high and an unemployment rate in the low 4's.  Considering all this, the bull stock market case from here is to Imagine what those crazy suckers will do if the economy actually starts to tank.  

 

The long cycle turn that I was expecting this past week I guess came in Wednesday in the risk window, but was much less exciting than I was expecting.  This long mirror cycle only has two more turn dates left before it expires:  this coming Friday September 20th and the following Tuesday the 24th (both +/- a couple of days).  This cycle could go out with a fizzle, but given its past hits, a bang would seem a lot more likely. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

[beta]

Thanks for your weekly updates.

 

 

I note that you did not post your regular weekly ewave setup, so I'll venture one of my own.  I now understand why you were posting for weeks about that rogue "B" wave.  I'm starting to think that's what we're seeing here, i.e., the completion of a "B" wave that began in early August. 

 

I dont follow the Dow, but the pattern discernible in the other indices strongly suggests this.  If so, then we should see a major peak that is either baked in already, or about 2-3% above Friday's high in the next 1-2 weeks.   Either way, I do not find the upside compelling. 

[Douglas]

beta, below please find my latest DJIA EWave exercise in futility.  I have very little confidence in this count since the "B" is now ridiculously above my "Top".  I console myself with the belief that the FED/Treasury amalgamation has distorted the waves due to all their pumping.   I do have a bullish alternative gleefully waiting in the wings should Powell go large this Wednesday and create a blow off rally which scorches my "B" count.  I won't say much about it except that if it comes to pass, you will want to go shopping early for your DOW 50k hat before they are all sold out.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas