8 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

The Fed more likely to cut only 25 bpts and the market may be disappointed ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 September 2024 - 10:59 AM.

[redfoliage2]

The Fed more likely to cut only 25 bpts and the market may be disappointed ..........................

Maybe not, depending on what the Fed chief will say .........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 September 2024 - 11:15 AM.

[beta]

 

The Fed more likely to cut only 25 bpts and the market may be disappointed ..........................

Maybe not, depending on what the Fed chief will say .........................

 

 

Brilliant word salad.  You are starting to sound like a presidential candidate.

[redfoliage2]

When you are talking about the market you shouldn't sound 100% sure.  In reality nothing is 100% sure with the market .....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 16 September 2024 - 11:35 AM.

[fib_1618]

From the bond pits: last Tuesday, the FedWatch tool was at 62% of a 1/4% cut for Wednesday.

 

Today, after the inflation numbers, the bet is at 61% chance of a 1/2% reduction.

 

For what it's worth, of course, but the FedWatch tool has never been wrong this close to a meeting...at least from the time of inception.

 

Fib

[12SPX]

 

 

The Fed more likely to cut only 25 bpts and the market may be disappointed ..........................

Maybe not, depending on what the Fed chief will say .........................

 

 

Brilliant word salad.  You are starting to sound like a presidential candidate.

 

hahaha, I know flips even more than kamala.  Why post a "fearless forcast" then lol!!   

[12SPX]

From the bond pits: last Tuesday, the FedWatch tool was at 62% of a 1/4% cut for Wednesday.

 

Today, after the inflation numbers, the bet is at 61% chance of a 1/2% reduction.

 

For what it's worth, of course, but the FedWatch tool has never been wrong this close to a meeting...at least from the time of inception.

 

Fib

That is very interesting!! 

[fib_1618]

Going into the stretch...the FedWatch tool is at 63% for a 1/2% cut on Wednesday.

 

Not a whole lot of confidence here..probably due to possibly being called out for having their thumb on the scale with less than 2 months before the election.

 

Fib

[fib_1618]

Well...that worked out nicely!

 

Future forecasts for interest rate cuts as of September 19th are:

 

November meeting: 1/4% @ 68%

December meeting: 1/2% @ 48%

January, March, May and June: all 1/4% and at around a 40% chance.

 

Of course, these numbers change daily based on daily bond/note futures trading, but posted here as a look back as we move forward.

 

Fib