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"Major Market Reversal Is Likely Coming"


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#91 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 09:11 AM

NEW POSITION: AAPL 235 PUT
WILL ADD above 240

Opex Friday choppy market... mainly NQ VST trades

#92 12SPX

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 10:14 AM

Market higher but every hour counts now, 5900 calls around $6.50....



#93 12SPX

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 11:04 AM

5900 calls holding $7 surprising, 4 hours to go.....



#94 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 11:41 AM

Es sell limit 5907.5

#95 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 11:43 AM

Are you opening positions after expiration today?

5900 calls holding $7 surprising, 4 hours to go.....



#96 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 11:43 AM

Nq short 20482

#97 12SPX

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 12:08 PM

Getting exciting 5900 calls back to this mornings $12 as the market is moving up here but premium still going down as it gets closer and closer to its real value!!  If we see any dip back to 5900 in the next three hours watch these options only have a $1 value.

 

Adding a bit more to my short at 5910 bringing my average sell to 5862

 

Yes d I have already started selling November expiration cycle options, the prices are insane as people think the market is going up forever.  It's similar to after the market has fallen -20% and puts are exorbitantly priced, calls are way overpriced.  Whats also interesting is another month is almost done and ES premium over cash has barely gone down, still about 45 points above cash.



#98 12SPX

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 01:03 PM

Oh oh back below $12 to $10.50 even with market higher, going to get fun on this one!! 



#99 12SPX

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Posted 18 October 2024 - 01:29 PM

I'm gonna head to lunch so won't be able to finish off this example but we'll see what it would have been worth in the end.  Take note any dips to 5900 will see that premium crash to $1.  Nonetheless numerous times a person could have taken some nice profits starting from the original post of a $12 sell.  Lets see if we close above the b/e of 5912, gonna be fun!!   



#100 12SPX

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Posted 19 October 2024 - 03:12 PM

Well there you go in the end the 5900 call was worth $6 so a person would have had a $6 profit.  Main point of it all though was that premiums for call options  is through the roof and what I have noticed in my past 40 years that once you start hitting these extremes it doesn't end well.