According to my risk summation system, next week is risky pretty much the whole cotton picking week. Properly the risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend peaks tomorrow Monday November 25th, but the system value stays relatively high Tuesday the 26th and only tails off a bit on Wednesday then rises again Friday the 29th. Wish the risk profile was more narrow, but it is what it is.
Last week was another triumph for the risk summation system with the Monday - Tuesday morning risk window tagging a nice low. The Friday PM risk window is probably just part of the big risk window mess starting this coming Monday the 25th.
Last week I posted a response to a note about the dollar mentioning a risk turn window for the currency on Friday the 25th. Well I put my money where my mouth was and did a bit of bottom fishing for Cable on Friday. Wish me luck, cause other tools I use say the dollar has higher targets to meet, hopefully not just now. Sometimes you catch the falling knife and sometimes you just get stabbed.
In last week's risk window post I suggested a few downside trend line targets for the DJIA for the sell off that was then underway. The highest trend line target that I noted was about 43,000 which is right where it bottomed this past week right in the risk window which is a rare twofer. The only problem is I thought it would take till the end of the week risk window to get there, not just a few hours.
I also noted a divergence in the NY Composite Common Stock AD Line and the Composite Index. The divergence is still there, but it looks like it's trying to heal. It's just another thing that should make this coming week interesting.
And I pointed out a big ugly island reversal in the the S&P short term chart last week that can be seen below. Well, the big rally blew that island right out of the water with the S&P filling the gaps. Sometime chart patterns work and sometime they're just a trap for rats like me.
Finally I posted the green Nvidia triangle below right before earning release speculating that a break of the triangle would set the new trend direction. Well, the break was down, so if the little red trend line holds, NVDA should start a run south if this chart pattern works, for risk of that not happening, see little squib about reversal islands above.
Oh, and think of poor Doug when you're sitting down to turkey and all the trimmings this week since my English wife doesn't celebrate this holiday and I'm just too danged lazy/incompetent to roast one myself.
Regards,
Douglas
