My risk summation systems says that the windows this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current tend in the DJIA are Monday December 9th and a window stretching from about noon on Wednesday the 11th thru the morning of Thursday December 12th.
Last week the Wednesday the 5th risk window in red below nailed the high for the week and a top of some degree.
Speaking of last week, my alternate bearish EWave count below which I added as a response to my own risk window post is still in play. This highly finagled mess's sole purpose in life is to call a top as I am wont to do. For this big stretch of the imagination to have any hope of being right, the DJIA needs to head south in a hurry this coming week.
And speaking of still in play, the NVDA triangle below that I also posted last week tested the lower turquoise triangle trend line and was found wanting. Like the DJIA count above, for this triangle to remain relevant NVDA will need to also head south in a hurry. Of course, any break up through the lower trend line scraps the pattern.
The risk windows that I posted for the US Dollar shown in the finviz.com plot below in yellow were spot on, but I was wrong about the form that the December 2nd risk window would take. I thought a low would occur in the Monday December 2nd risk window, but instead another high was tagged leading the dollar lower. The next two risk windows for the currency are this coming Wednesday December 11th and the following Wednesday the 18th.
The SPX AD line and cumulative volume lines' divergence with the index that I noted last week persisted this week. If the SPX doesn't also head south in a hurry, this divergence in all likelihood will be healed in a bear scorching rally. The next week or so would appear to be pivotal on several fronts.
Regards,
Douglas
