1 reply to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday January 3rd, but like last week there is a dull hum of risk throughout next week, so care is warranted every day.

 

Last week the risk window peak below in red on Thursday the 26th was a bullseye tagging a top of some degree right before the plunge.  

 

 

My current bullish primary EWave count below expects a low to form in the coming days leading to another leg higher to finish a third wave, iii.  

 

 

My bearish alternative count below expects the trap door to hades to open in a few days into the third wave down in a big C wave down.  Pick your poison, third wave up or third wave down.  At least it should be easy to tell which one (if either) is the winner fairly soon.

 

 

The resolution to the EWave quandary above, I believe, is probably related to our current Neil Howe's fourth turning position.  If, as Howe postulates in his relatively recent book, The Fourth Turning Is Here, the fourth turning is wrapping up sometime by about 2033, then is Trump Franklin Roosevelt or is he Herbert Hoover?  If you buy into the whole 4th turning proposition, then that would seem to be the question that needs answering.  Given all the recent tariff talk and Smoot-Hawley in 1930 and the soaring stock market, you have to think Hoover, but who knows.  Fortunately or unfortunately depending on how this all plays out, we will, probably in just a few years.

 

Have a Happy New Year,

Douglas

 

 

[Douglas]

The end of my post above was a bit dark, speculating that the Donald might be H. Hoover in the Howe fourth turning construct.  There is a third positive alternative that also merits consideration.  Howe's four turnings last roughly 80 or so years.  The "beginning" turning point of the last fourth turning was the stock market crash in 1929.  80 years plus 1929 is 2009, the year of the global financial crisis.  That crisis probably did not result in a depression due to the enormous money printing by central banks and treasuries around the globe.  The last fourth turning ending turning point was 1945, the end of WWII, 16 years after 1929.  16 years plus 2009 is 2025 and if the Donald can end the war between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Palestine there is another parallel to the last fourth turning, and Trump would not be Hoover or Roosevelt, but rather Harry Truman who saw the end of WWII and ushered in one of the greatest growth periods in American history. 

 

But what about the stock market, where is the crash that happened in the last fourth turning?  Look at the chart below and you will see it.

 

In real money the DOW has crashed and is in recovery much like it was in 1945.  At the crash in 1929 the dollar was directly convertible into gold, so the DOW was priced in gold unlike now where the dollar is funny money printed by the trillions at will by the FED/Treasury amalgamation and has no relationship to gold, so the plot above is a more accurate representation of the stock market than the dollar denominated one quoted by the stock exchange.

 

Of course, the above means Howe is incorrect in his current thinking about where we are in the current fourth turning, and me, a rank amateur, being right and him being wrong is not likely, so that's definitely working against this option, but stranger things have happened, and another late '40's to 1950's American growth period would be pretty amazing.  

 

Regards,

Douglas