7 replies to this topic

[andr99]

we didn't have the bullish December I had in my mind, so that the bullish leg I was waiting for, should be in the cards this month. It has just been postponed I think.  

[slupert]

The line in the sand has been drawn.  The 10 year closed at  4.68 today. If it closes above 4.74, it could make a mad dash to 5 or 5.2. Equities might take a ST hit. I think they will hat that level but couldn't say if its tomorrow or next month. Trade whats in front of you, but think a couple moves ahead. why would some selling before the jobs report be unexpected?The Dec. CPI usually comes in warm, Do I want the market to sell off and bottom before CPI?  JMHO

[12SPX]

Or as I have been saying since the election, up a bit afterwards and then volatility will set in.  I will be shocked if we see decent new highs this high, I'd give it maybe +2% above but as you note it will depend on bond yields, if we do see 5% as you say, it won't be good as earnings projections are priced for perfection still and higher yields mean less lending etc etc etc, slowdown....

[andr99]

not as pessimist as you are

 

spx : 

 

https://i.postimg.cc.../spxjan2025.jpg

 

usually similar patterns have similar resolutions and besides that the bullish channel is intact

Edited by andr99, 08 January 2025 - 10:27 AM.

[12SPX]

Awwwww I always love trend lines because they are always adjusted by people lol!!  I have ever yet to see someone place them and then admit they were wrong when they were broken.  Using this chart for an example I'd bet the original lower trend line was Nov 4th about so if you followed it up would have been broken to the downside about Dec 16th.  But you can't not keep the uptrend line going so a few days later adjusted to that bottom but then it got broke again where your current trend line is now lol!!!  Whalla uptrend still intact lol!!  To me the original break means volatility ahead no pessimism and 40 years of experience with live trades posted on here lol!!  The way more important question though is who will win the Australian open....

[andr99]

Awwwww I always love trend lines because they are always adjusted by people lol!!  I have ever yet to see someone place them and then admit they were wrong when they were broken.  Using this chart for an example I'd bet the original lower trend line was Nov 4th about so if you followed it up would have been broken to the downside about Dec 16th.  But you can't not keep the uptrend line going so a few days later adjusted to that bottom but then it got broke again where your current trend line is now lol!!!  Whalla uptrend still intact lol!!  To me the original break means volatility ahead no pessimism and 40 years of experience with live trades posted on here lol!!  The way more important question though is who will win the Australian open....

 

as for the Australian open, the answer is very easy......Sinner, as for the other problem, the trend lines, it depends on how many of them one has traced in his whole trading career. 

 

I'm expecting this channel to work out until the end of January, then if it is dismissed........no problem. For sure another dip won't lead to any important top until at least May, I think.   

[andr99]

to tell the truth, it's the first time I trace that channel and I haven't yet adjusted it, LOL. Because I too don't like trend channels, but this one makes sense to me in the short term. Obviously 

 

there's something else supporting my idea of a short term bullish leg topping around the end of January, but I have no time to post here my entire set of observations that lead me to think so. 

[andr99]

this is bank of America 

 

https://i.postimg.cc...nkofamerica.jpg

 

the trend line that supported the whole latest bullish trend is very effective I believe