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Risk Windows for This Week & Inflation On-Deck


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 12 January 2025 - 03:26 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday January 13th and Friday the 17th.  Tuesday has a modestly high signal too, so I wouldn't be too surprised if Monday's event doesn't spill over into Tuesday morning, but the risk peaks are on Monday and Friday.

 

Last week the summation system hit a bullseye, with the risk window tagging a top of some degree.

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Well, the long bond red line that I noted last week was crossed, and the DJIA broke pretty hard.  The inflation figures coming out Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will probably determine if this crossing was the Rubicon or just Delancey Street.  It's all in the hands of the magic numbers peeps at the BLS, some of the same folks the DOGE gang has threatened to layoff in their two trillion dollar cut.  You think maybe the soon to be unemployed BLS numbers crunchers may want to give the Donald a little hot number welcome gift on their way out the door?  Well, the actual jobs number that whacked the bond market last week was actually something like a loss of a hundred thousand jobs before the BLS seasonal adjustment.  Let that sink in for a moment before poo-pooing the possibility of a hot "adjusted" inflation number. Time, as always, will tell the tale.

 

Sentiment at least has swung over to the bearish side with more bears than bulls at AAII as Don and others noted in posts this past week and there was a dip also in the TSP numbers which could support a rally if the BLS plays nice with this week's inflation data, but a sustained move to negative numbers in the sum below might be required if the inflation numbers don't come in better than expected.

 

z2NUNnZ.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

 

 

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 12 January 2025 - 08:56 AM

My EWave primary bullish and alternative bearish counts remain more or less unchanged and viable, but one, the bearish, is predicting immediate devastation, so it could die on the vine or at the very least get seriously modified in the next week or so if things don't head south in a big hurry.  The BLS pulling a fast one with the inflation numbers this week as noted above is probably its last hope.  

 

Bullish Primary Count

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Bearish Alternative Count

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Regards,

Douglas