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BEARS celebrate TARIFF WAR!


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#31 redfoliage2

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 08:40 AM

As the the tariffs drama keeps playing back and forth it has lost its power to have a day-to-day impact on the market.  Now the market attention is likely to come back on the earnings reports.  So far 36% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the fourth quarter. Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 75%, that is the main support for the current bull market......................... 


Edited by redfoliage2, 04 February 2025 - 08:47 AM.


#32 12SPX

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 08:50 AM

Debated taking profits overnight going to bed but decided instead to leave and see we came back still but will see as we go into the cash session.  For now I'll put a profit stop at 5925 as I see the bond market is trending much higher and everyone is still overly bullish!! 



#33 12SPX

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 09:08 AM

And out for a very tidy 30 point profit can't complain about that.  Almost feel like calling it a day and just watch premium dry up but debating taking profits there to as they have fallen so much. Maybe I should look around and see if there is a daily to sell lol!! 



#34 12SPX

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 09:24 AM

Okay, found a couple of examples!!  At the open of last night a person could have sold the 6100 daily call expiring today for $8 or the 6125 for $$2.75.  What are they T this morning,,,,$1.00 and $.30.  These daily's are pure gambling in my view and can't believe they now have the most volume.  If that doesn't send a message to a person about the market I'm not sure what does!!  It's no wonder banks are making so much money in trading now lol!! 



#35 12SPX

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 10:33 AM

Came back and I see my short build is starting right where it was yesterday, 6055.  Gonna keep it really wide though but the market is confused and seems directionless so volatility will likely remain.



#36 redfoliage2

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 11:21 AM

As the the tariffs drama keeps playing back and forth it has lost its power to have a day-to-day impact on the market.  Now the market attention is likely to come back on the earnings reports.  So far 36% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the fourth quarter. Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 75%, that is the main support for the current bull market......................... 

BTW, Google to report after close today ........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 04 February 2025 - 11:25 AM.


#37 redfoliage2

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 12:14 PM

 

Well, it looks some big players are buying this dip.  Now I see the opening downside gap is likely to be back filled with ES to hit 6050 - 6060 soon....................................

For SPX it should hit 6035 to have the opening gap back-filled, and 6060 for ES.  Let's see if they are going to get it done before the close.  Today's dramatic intra-day reversal indicates bulls are still in control .....................

 

Now with SPX hit 6040 and ES touched 6066 the opening downside gap from yesterday has been fully back-filled.  Technically I'd not be surprised to see a possible turn-around/profit taking from here............................


Edited by redfoliage2, 04 February 2025 - 12:18 PM.


#38 dTraderB

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 02:41 PM

Will open 2 AMZN PUTS, above 240, to complete STRANGLE, and add 1 each soy, qqq, dia PUT above es 6085. Market can trade near or above ES 6090 today.
I am tempted to close 2 AMZN CALLS instead of the STRANGLE trade but I prefer to hold the CALLS & add PUTS at record highs.

Will complete GOOGL strangle before 4pn

Only VST trades in NQ, ES and EURUSD todat.

Am Net short now
Add 1 each at 6044, 21504, 44688

Add 1 each above Es 6033

Will start hedging NET LONG POSITION with PUTS.
Spy, qqq, dia above es 6025...



#39 linrom1

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 03:26 PM

We just need GOOGL to crap for all this nonsense to stop.



#40 12SPX

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Posted 04 February 2025 - 03:42 PM

Just got back and have gone back and forth with little 1-3 point profits but in cash in the last hour as the market has popped back up.  Lets see what happens after the earnings reports but I would likely sell on the news if we see a pop!!!