xau at 200 dma
Started by
Islander
, Aug 17 2004 01:14 PM
5 replies to this topic
#1
Islander
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Posted 17 August 2004 - 01:14 PM
I am a bear on gold, but this move this week suggests that the dollar is about to go south, further south. My cycles say that gold is on a 94.5 month cycle and peaked in May 04, but that does not mean gold will not have its moves due to short run events. Am I wrong or what ?
#2
kamakazeman
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Posted 17 August 2004 - 03:15 PM
Timinig is everything, isn't it?I am a bear on gold, but this move this week suggests that the dollar is about to go south, further south. My cycles say that gold is on a 94.5 month cycle and peaked in May 04, but that does not mean gold will not have its moves due to short run events. Am I wrong or what ?
your 94.5 mo. cycle could be composed of two 4 year cycles, one now finished and the second getting underway, and depending on the even longer than 94.5 mon trends, it could go quite a bit higher before heading down to form the 94.5 low.
Can you point me to a very long weekly chart? Been a while since I really studied the long trends.
Say from 1980 on ?
thx,
mike
Edited by kamakazeman, 17 August 2004 - 03:17 PM.
I started out with nothing, and, I have most of it left.........
#3
Islander
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Posted 17 August 2004 - 03:49 PM
I use the U of Calf data base which is open to the public. Stan Harley also has the cycle in his work. I don't subscribe, but I met him not long ago and he agreed we were into a down trend. Islander.
#4
kamakazeman
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Posted 17 August 2004 - 03:59 PM
Thx,I use the U of Calf data base which is open to the public. Stan Harley also has the cycle in his work. I don't subscribe, but I met him not long ago and he agreed we were into a down trend. Islander.
I'm not familiar with that database, if convenient would you post an url?
thx
mike
I started out with nothing, and, I have most of it left.........
#5
Islander
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Posted 19 August 2004 - 12:18 PM
Short run the 200ma on XAU did mean something. Today NEM CBJ, GSS GG have all popped up 4-8% don't know why, possibly they have not heard of the cycle I have been worrying over.
#6
Islander
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Posted 19 August 2004 - 12:23 PM
K
You asked for the U of C Economic data base, I checked and we are paying $100 bucks a year to use it. If you want something I will attempt to get you the time series you wanted. It does go back full length of the cycle Harley thinks governs the gold market. The composition of the time series changes with time. I
