1 reply to this topic

[SilentOne]

This has to be the number #1 reason for my bullishness in the PM sector. Look at what oil has been doing, then look at the PM charts that follow. Oil will pullback as it hits the uppertrendline, correct some then go up again.





http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$GOLD,uu[p,a]dhllyyay[d20010101,20041213][pb50!b200!c400][vc60][iuv25!uk14!up14,3,3!ua5,34,5][J22000633,Y].gif

On the XAU I see two possible triangles. If the XAU were to rise to 155, it would hit the upper trendline of at least one rising triangle from the 2001 lows. Also note how it held its bottom trendline in the spring selloff.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$xau,uu[w,a]waclyyay[dk][pb50!b65][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=9947.gif

On the HUI, you have a similar idea but a caveat. It looks like we broke below the lower trendline here. Combined with the MACD dip below the zero line this looks like a 4th wave being put in here. To see what I mean, have a look at the DOW rise in the 1994 - 1998 period. The correction into late 1998 was clearly a 4th wave of large degree and you can see what the MACD did.

I expect the 5th wave rise to be extended and I bet the uppertrendline (off the Q4 2002 rise) meets the next HUI target. Just a hunch. The strength of this move to new highs will tip you off to such possible targets.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$hui,uu[w,a]waclyyay[dk][pb50!b65][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=8746.gif

Have a look at GSS. It has min. $20 written all over it on this next rise. Sure it is the previous LT high, but draw in the trendlines from the lows and you can see why the rise looks so bullish again.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=gss,uu[w,a]waclyyay[dk][pb50!b65][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=5286.gif

Then look at some other charts like ABER (diamonds).

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=ABER,uu[p,a]whclyyay[d19960814,20041231][pb50!b200][vc60][iuv25!uk14!ua5,34,5!up14,3,3!lj[$hui]!lf][J22650863,Y].gif

How about the DOW rise off the '94 lows. Focus on the 4yr period 1994 - 1998.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$indu,uu[w,a]waclyyay[dk][pb50!b65][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=4346.gif

Note the rising triangles. I wish I could annotate and post the charts. But I am sure you get the idea.

These upward triangles characterize extended moves. The initial waves are merely subdivisions (ie. 1,2 waves) until the real rise gets going. The oil chart is a perfect illustration and has much more upside over the coming years.

Have a good weekend

cheers,

john

[hiker]

very helpful info. John. ABER caught my eye because I profitably traded it in the 1990's, but not since. Fyi, Zacks.com provides the profile below and assigns its strongest sell rating of 5, based on earnings surprise persistency, etc. Aber Resources principal asset is its 40 per cent interest in the Diavik Diamonds Project located in Canada's Northwest Territories. Diavik will be Canada's second diamond mine. Aber does not operate the Diavik project, nor any other diamond exploration or development project. Rather, its intention is to become a focussed diamond marketing company, maximising its return from the Diavik product through integration and business development within the downstream diamond pipeline.