as with Larry Katz over on the ff board, i've also not posted on tt for quite some time, but thought i'd share some of my current observations, and if there's an interest, continue doing so in the future.
some of you may remember that in an interview with Ike back in late '02, i suggested that the US finanacial markets had seen at least an intermediate-term bottom, and would rally for some 18-24 months. and while we've slightly extended beyond that forecast in terms of time, the price-range forecast i made at that time has yet to be reached.
below is a chart that i prepared for Ike back on 10/18/02, which he also included in his newsletter that month... at that time, i allowed for the bottom that was made in 10/02 to be a potential Intermediate Wave-IV low, however since that time i've needed to revise my count to Wave-W:IV, as imho, the fractal structure since that low doesn't appear to be impulsive... regardless of the labeling, please note how the median lines, which were all hand-drawn at the time, helped me to suggest or forecast the ensuing rally (fwiw, the 'swing waves' logo on the chart was how this board got its name) :
now here is a current chart of what has happened since that forecast, again, while the fractal labeling has changed to reflect what i think is a non-impulsive rally (bearish) since the 10/02 low, the median line sets that were used in the chart above are the same, though no longer hand-drawn, so since they are generated by a forks tool, they are slightly different, but now more accurate:
in summary, if my suggestion that Wave-X:IV is nearing its conclusion is correct, then another leg downward to complete Wave-Y:IV would be due for 2005... twt.
--tsharp
