it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
ST HyMo SAR @ 1217.50 ES
Started by
tsharp
, Dec 30 2004 04:25 PM
4 replies to this topic
#1
tsharp
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,487 posts
Member
Posted 30 December 2004 - 04:25 PM
fwiw, my short-term hybrid momentum model SARed today @ 15:45 @ 1217.50 ES, for +4.0 on the last swing.
it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
#2
tsharp
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,487 posts
Member
Posted 31 December 2004 - 10:01 AM
fwiw, my short-term hybrid momentum model SARed today @ 15:45 @ 1217.50 ES, for +4.0 on the last swing.
it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
sorry that i forgot to post this yesterday, but i had to go out and care for some other business matters.
attached to this message is a chart of the 130-min spx. you'll note that while the spx has thus far not been able to move up to that higher possible price target in the ~1222 range, yesterday's confluence of MLs was an ideal place to put a high in, if indeed we have... twt.
--tsharp
#3
tsharp
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,487 posts
Member
Posted 31 December 2004 - 04:33 PM
fwiw, my short-term hybrid momentum model SARed today @ 15:45 @ 1217.50 ES, for +4.0 on the last swing.
it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
fwiw, the midday rally put my model right on the brink of flipping back to a long, but as the buying faded, so also did the potential signal, and as you can see (chart attached), my ST HyMo model remains short from yesterday's 1217.50 ES.
while the spx only closed down on the day, the ES managed to create an outside down, key reversal bar on the daily chart. with the conflict between the spx and ES, we'll need to see what next week brings.
happy and profitable New Year to all!
--tsharp
Attached Thumbnails
#4
tsharp
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,487 posts
Member
Posted 03 January 2005 - 07:38 AM
[quote name='tsharp' date='Dec 31 2004, 05:33 PM']
[quote name='tsharp' date='Dec 30 2004, 05:25 PM']fwiw, my short-term hybrid momentum model SARed today @ 15:45 @ 1217.50 ES, for +4.0 on the last swing.
it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
[Edited out older chart to preserve bandwidth]
fwiw, the midday rally put my model right on the brink of flipping back to a long, but as the buying faded, so also did the potential signal, and as you can see (chart attached), my ST HyMo model remains short from yesterday's 1217.50 ES.
while the spx only closed down on the day, the ES managed to create an outside down, key reversal bar on the daily chart. with the conflict between the spx and ES, we'll need to see what next week brings.
happy and profitable New Year to all!
--tsharp
[/quote]
quote from elsewhere on fri pm:
tsharp... Fri, Dec 31, 3:58PM ET
if'n we were to bounce from here on monday my stuph would prolly signal a buy
and more from sat:
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:41PM ET
to be honest, i don't know either way... i have a higher target that didn't get hit (spx ~1222), but it didn't really have to get hit, i just thought it would... fwiw, my stuph is already short from 1217.50... so we'll see.
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:44PM ET
it would be a nasty trick if'n the drops on thurs and fri were wave-a and wave-c, respectively, of a wave-iv, with wave-v .... still ahead
above is just another illustration (imho) of the inherent problems of attempting to use EW/fractal analysis as a frontline trading tool... there are usually just too many other possibilities always abounding, and we as 'counters' seem to have the tendency to overlook or discount the other possibilities according to our biases or current trading positions.
the ES globex session has already taken out last week's highs, so it appears likely that we'll be reversing back to long this morning, as the fast signal line in my work would be showing positive divergence, but we'll have to see what happens once RTH gets under way.
--tsharp
[quote name='tsharp' date='Dec 30 2004, 05:25 PM']fwiw, my short-term hybrid momentum model SARed today @ 15:45 @ 1217.50 ES, for +4.0 on the last swing.
it doesn't look too likely that the SPX will be able to still move on up to the ~1222 level, but with the light holiday-schedule volume, who can say for sure?
--tsharp
[Edited out older chart to preserve bandwidth]
fwiw, the midday rally put my model right on the brink of flipping back to a long, but as the buying faded, so also did the potential signal, and as you can see (chart attached), my ST HyMo model remains short from yesterday's 1217.50 ES.
while the spx only closed down on the day, the ES managed to create an outside down, key reversal bar on the daily chart. with the conflict between the spx and ES, we'll need to see what next week brings.
happy and profitable New Year to all!
--tsharp
[/quote]
quote from elsewhere on fri pm:
tsharp... Fri, Dec 31, 3:58PM ET
if'n we were to bounce from here on monday my stuph would prolly signal a buy
and more from sat:
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:41PM ET
to be honest, i don't know either way... i have a higher target that didn't get hit (spx ~1222), but it didn't really have to get hit, i just thought it would... fwiw, my stuph is already short from 1217.50... so we'll see.
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:44PM ET
it would be a nasty trick if'n the drops on thurs and fri were wave-a and wave-c, respectively, of a wave-iv, with wave-v .... still ahead
above is just another illustration (imho) of the inherent problems of attempting to use EW/fractal analysis as a frontline trading tool... there are usually just too many other possibilities always abounding, and we as 'counters' seem to have the tendency to overlook or discount the other possibilities according to our biases or current trading positions.
the ES globex session has already taken out last week's highs, so it appears likely that we'll be reversing back to long this morning, as the fast signal line in my work would be showing positive divergence, but we'll have to see what happens once RTH gets under way.
--tsharp
#5
tsharp
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,487 posts
Member
Posted 03 January 2005 - 10:51 AM
[/quote]
quote from elsewhere on fri pm:
tsharp... Fri, Dec 31, 3:58PM ET
if'n we were to bounce from here on monday my stuph would prolly signal a buy
and more from sat:
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:41PM ET
to be honest, i don't know either way... i have a higher target that didn't get hit (spx ~1222), but it didn't really have to get hit, i just thought it would... fwiw, my stuph is already short from 1217.50... so we'll see.
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:44PM ET
it would be a nasty trick if'n the drops on thurs and fri were wave-a and wave-c, respectively, of a wave-iv, with wave-v .... still ahead
above is just another illustration (imho) of the inherent problems of attempting to use EW/fractal analysis as a frontline trading tool... there are usually just too many other possibilities always abounding, and we as 'counters' seem to have the tendency to overlook or discount the other possibilities according to our biases or current trading positions.
the ES globex session has already taken out last week's highs, so it appears likely that we'll be reversing back to long this morning, as the fast signal line in my work would be showing positive divergence, but we'll have to see what happens once RTH gets under way.
--tsharp
[/quote]
lol!!! what a game... it was the worst of both worlds... the boolz got their higher-high, and the bearz have their lower-lows... if the scenario above was the case (wave-iv), then the wave-v could be complete, but in any case, my stuph remained short, though it did snorkel for just a few minutes for the second time on this swing.
if we happen to close down on the day, it would be another outside-down bearish engulfing candle, and would also be considered a key reversal day. anyway, from the attached chart, you'll notice that the spx is coming into a potential support area, the pbma line on the price chart. if it convincingly breaks through that line, it would suggest that at least a ST CIT is in place.
--tsharp
quote from elsewhere on fri pm:
tsharp... Fri, Dec 31, 3:58PM ET
if'n we were to bounce from here on monday my stuph would prolly signal a buy
and more from sat:
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:41PM ET
to be honest, i don't know either way... i have a higher target that didn't get hit (spx ~1222), but it didn't really have to get hit, i just thought it would... fwiw, my stuph is already short from 1217.50... so we'll see.
tsharp... Sat, Jan 1, 4:44PM ET
it would be a nasty trick if'n the drops on thurs and fri were wave-a and wave-c, respectively, of a wave-iv, with wave-v .... still ahead
above is just another illustration (imho) of the inherent problems of attempting to use EW/fractal analysis as a frontline trading tool... there are usually just too many other possibilities always abounding, and we as 'counters' seem to have the tendency to overlook or discount the other possibilities according to our biases or current trading positions.
the ES globex session has already taken out last week's highs, so it appears likely that we'll be reversing back to long this morning, as the fast signal line in my work would be showing positive divergence, but we'll have to see what happens once RTH gets under way.
--tsharp
[/quote]
lol!!! what a game... it was the worst of both worlds... the boolz got their higher-high, and the bearz have their lower-lows... if the scenario above was the case (wave-iv), then the wave-v could be complete, but in any case, my stuph remained short, though it did snorkel for just a few minutes for the second time on this swing.
if we happen to close down on the day, it would be another outside-down bearish engulfing candle, and would also be considered a key reversal day. anyway, from the attached chart, you'll notice that the spx is coming into a potential support area, the pbma line on the price chart. if it convincingly breaks through that line, it would suggest that at least a ST CIT is in place.
--tsharp
