fwiw, here's a chart of the spx with a 21-week moving average channel overlaid.
each of the sets of lines above and below the dark blue line are 5% deviation lines. it's been my observation that in normal bool market conditions, the price level will oscillate above and below the 21wma, but during stronger periods of boolishness, the price level will bounce between the 21wma and the first upper 5% deviation line, with occasional surges to as high as the second upper 10% deviation line.
how the price level reacts to the 21wma could give us a clue as to whether the bool market is still in tact, or if an IT bear market has begun. i suspect that the price level will find support and probably even bounce from the range of the 21wma (~1160-70) the first time it comes down, but won't go as far as to prophesy as much.
and since i don't wish to write the end from the beginning, for the moment i'll just assume that we'll see a bounce from that range... that being the case, it will be the second time down into the 21wma range that will interest me most, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.
--tsharp
spx 21wmac...
Started by
tsharp
, Jan 05 2005 06:36 PM
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