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[wxman]

1)
http://www.unixgeeks...charts/13JAN05/
2)
http://news.goldseek.../1105927200.php
* HUI, NEM, and the XAU successfully tested their January 6 Lows on Friday January 14. HUI hit a short term cycle buy signal (see 5 day chart) near session's end on Friday January 14 and, since the XAU is on the verge of a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (see 1 year chart), it's likely that a major buy signal will occur this week and that January 6's lows are a major bottom. The Commitments of Traders (COT) data the past two weeks for Gold, Silver, and the US Dollar (USD) revealed dramatic repositioning consistent with a major bottom having occurred and has very bullish implications. Also, Mark Hulbert revealed that gold timers are the most bearish they've been since 1997, which is another huge plus.

* HUI, NEM, and the XAU successfully tested their January 6 lows (at 200.33 for HUI, at 41.26 for NEM, and at 92.59 for the XAU) on Friday January 14 and HUI hit a short term cycle buy signal (see 5 day HUI chart) late on Friday 1-14. They put in likely short term cycle lows just after the open on 1-14 at 201.39 for HUI, 41.78 for NEM, and 92.93 for the XAU. The major correction since 11-17-04 probably ended on 1-6-05.

* Once the intermediate term downcycle trendlines (in place since the major top on 11-17-04) for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (see latest 1 year charts) are broken and at least 2% of follow through confirms the intermediate term cycle buy signal (as opposed to an early spike move followed by a downtrend), that will be a major (intermediate term cycle) buy signal.

* Major intermediate term cycle lows appear to have occurred very early on 1-6-05 at 200.33 for HUI, at 41.26 for NEM, and at 92.59 for the XAU (versus 207.77 for HUI, 43 for NEM, and 95.93 for the XAU on 12-8-04), based on the proximity to HUI/XAU's long term upcycle trendlines (see 1 year charts), very strong buying near the lows, and very bullish COT data the past two weeks.

* The very flat start to this likely intermediate term upcycle since 1-6-05 fits with a major bottom having occurred. Cycles tend to begin fairly flat and become increasingly parabolic/sharply rising. A major difference between this cycle and the cycle after 12-8-04's short term cycle low is that there never was a successful retest after 12-8-04. This cycle since 1-6-05 has had a number of successful retests, as one can see in HUI, NEM, and the XAU's charts, there are a number of session lows near the lows that occurred on 1-6-05.

* Assuming a long term upcycle remains in place, the XAU has to flash a major intermediate term cycle buy signal this week, because it's very near the intersection of it's long term upcycle and intermediate term downcycle trendlines (see 1 year chart). Also, NEM is very near the bottom it's Bull Market channel (see 5 year chart dated 1-7-05).

* NEM is outperforming now as can be seen in it's 5 day Lead Indicator chart (first chart). NEM underperformed until Monday 1-10, correctly portending weakness in the second half of last week.

* Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest recently reported that gold timers are the most bearish they've been since 1997! Tell me that isn't great news. A few months ago near the 11-17-04 major (intermediate term cycle) high gold timer bullishness was rampant. Now, after a major (intermediate term cycle) low on 1-6-05 probably occurred gold timers are generally very bearish. Gold stocks have a very solid wall of worry to climb, at least in terms of advisor sentiment.

[TomD]

Mark Hulbet needs to take a look at the gold chart in 97 and what happened afterwards.