Posted 19 January 2005 - 05:51 PM
*Interview with Ike Iossif on January 6 http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
**Interview withLeo Leydon For January 19 , http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html-click archive.
"TimerDigest" has Tim Ordranked #5 on returnsfor the S&P in 2004.
"TimerDigest" has ranked TimOrd as the #2 gold timerfor 2004.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Flat.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Long SPX on8/19/04 at 1091.23. Possible target to old high near 1550 level.
What to expect now:
The McClellan Summationis moving down and implies the trend is down for now. On the recent decline off of the December 31 high the McClellan Oscillatorreached down to over -200. After a rally modethat has lasted several months, the first decline that sends the McClellan Oscillator downto over -200 is when a higher degree consolidation begins. We have lightened up to one stock we are holding and that is SQNM (It's acancer type company, which still looks fine technically). Eventuallyit appears the S&P will go back to support near the 1160 to 1150 range. The 1160 to 1150 range may be the area where thenext buy signal could get triggered. If the1160 to 1150 range does not hold, then that will spell serious trouble for the market. However, it appearsthe 1160 range will hold. Patiencewill be needed for the next several weeks. Weare watching the "Oil Service" index (which looks bullish near term) and we likeHOFF at a little lower price. We'll send areport if a buy signal is triggered on HOFF.
To learn more on"Ord-Volume" please visit www.ord-oracle.com.
Sold 1/2 eght at4.20 (60% gain) and 1/2 at 3.50 for 47% gain (stop at 3.50 was hit). On 12/30, we bought SQNM at 1.36. Support near 1.20 target near 4.50.
Nasdaq Composite:
The"Ord-Volume" for the Nasdaq which measures average daily volume between swings,has produced a negative divergence for the short term. Volume goes in the direction of the true trend. If average daily volume is higher on the up swingsthan the down swings than the trend is up and visa versa. On the recent down swing formthe January 3 high the average daily volume has increased to a higher level than theprevious up swing going into the January 3 high and implies the "Force" hasswitched from up to either sideways or possibly down. So right now we are being cautious. Supportcomes in near the 2050 range. We are staying flat for now.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
On the graph below of the"Dow Jones US Precious metal" ($djuspm) (we like this index because it hasvolume and closely mirrors what the XAU does) (Courtesyof www.decisionpoint.com),we have labeled what appear to be a "Head and Shoulders" bottom and a"Down-Sloping Wedge" pattern. Noticethat the current price is near equal to the "Left Shoulder" bottom and shouldfind support. Also notice that the currentprice is also near the Apex of the "Down-Sloping Wedge" we have drawn on thechart and as this market worked lower the volume gradually contracted. The contracting volume on a "DecliningWedge" is a bullish development and shows that as the market worked lower the"Force" is decreasing. Once a "Declining Wedge" is completed, a strongrally develops that takes the market back up to at least where the pattern began (it cango further), which is back to the December highs. Wehave compared the volume at the price high marked "B" and compared it to theprevious price high marked "A". Theprice high at "B" broke the price high marked "A" and did so on highervolume. Once a previous high is broken onhigher volume, you can have pullbacks (Such is the case here), but ultimately the highswill be exceeded. We don't have it drawn onthe graph but the current pullback price low is near the 50% retracement level, which isnormal pull back in a bull move. As it standson the bigger time frames, "djuspm" is in a bullish mode. We have had for thelast several weeks that for this "Right Shoulder" to be symmetric in time to the"Left Shoulder", it would take to the end of January to first of February. The next up leg may take the XAU to ourlonger-term target near the 150 to 180 range. Wedid an "Ord-Volume" software analysis on "djusmp" (Use symbol"^djsump") and it too confirms the bullish mode.
We double our positionsin BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for anaverage of price of 2.89. Long NXG average of 2.26. We doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of5.24. Gss is not acting well for the moment. Nochange for now. Long PMU at average 1.12.
The McClellan Oscillatorclosed today's at -29 and at a neutal level.
The “PercentVolume” Indicator closed at .49 and in the neutral level.
“Five day ARMS”indicator closed at 6.53 and in the buy area.
Conclusion:Support near 1160 on S&P and 2050 on Nasdaq.
Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23.
Upside target to old 2000 highs near the 1550 level.
