5 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

You know when I look at this chart, I can't get really bearish until the green trendline is taken out. HUI 196 affords a key level. It is the 62% retrace of the summer leg up. If the index tests this level from here and holds ...

There are 3 obvious EW possibilities here:

1) Wave I up completed in Dec. 2003 and we are in deep wave II wave C correction to HUI 150 -160. The real bears target 120. LOL.

2) Wave I up completed in Dec. 2003 and we are in a running wave II correction with leg X up to HUI 280 - 290. This is David Petch's preferred scenario but it is in jeopardy. A break below HUI 196 kills it.

3) Wave III up completed in Dec. 2003 and we are in large IV wave triangle correction and once complete the next leg targets HUI 350 - 400.

And no I don't see this as a final bear leg of the 25+ year bear market. Get real.

Also the MA envelopes bear watching. If they compress as they did in previous consolidations and price then heads up, well the next run is on IMO. Hard to see at this point amongst all the bears, but it is worth watching. I'll be longing silver stocks and taking profits (like this week), until we see more positive signs.

Either way, it will take time to complete the consolidation ahead.

Why do I bother with this sector? I believe the bull is there and when the next big leg starts, it will be a hummer. And silver stocks should do very well.

http://www.capitalst...st&id=40776.gif

Thanks to Mr. Hanky at Capital Stool for this chart.

cheers,

john

[swanstkdh]

I am looking t this chart. Very nice. It looks like a winner. My screen shows the trendline in a color I can read but that retracement number you have is in a bright green color that I cannot see. What is the number that is on the retracement line that goes back to the beginning. Please convey.

[Mike]

I am looking t this chart. Very nice. It looks like a winner. My screen shows the trendline in a color I can read but that retracement number you have is in a bright green color that I cannot see. What is the number that is on the retracement line that goes back to the beginning. Please convey.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

http://colorvisionte...online test.htm

[alanm]

Mike, If you've updated it lately, can you kindly share your GOLD - MOON PHASES chart, please? TIA Alan

[SilentOne]

August - November leg

http://mscharts.pcqu...me=&lcprice.gif

62% retrace is the pink line.

May - November leg

http://mscharts.pcqu...me=&lcprice.gif

Now you see where the HUI 196 comes from. That has to hold IMO for any of the more bullish options to unfold.

cheers,

john

PS Hey mike, nice charts

[swanstkdh]

Hey I see those numbers just fine. I thought it was 196 hui this am but couldnt tell for sure. Whoever the smart @ss is that put up that stupid color test thing give your head a shake. Thanks silent.