4 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

sorry for the little delay here, i didn't have the page pre-loaded and was chatting over at another daytrader's site...

fwiw, my short-term momentum model just gave a SAR signal at 1173.50 at 11:00 for +1.0 on the last swing.

it appears at this moment, that the high yesterday was a wave-e:c:iv, or else we're still in a more complex wave-iv, but by the former interpretation, we've already completed a wave-i, wave-ii and have just begun a wave-iii down... twt.

will post a chart later.

--tsharp

P.S. posts from the other site:

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:46AM ET
oh the precision with which they play their games... look at the ES chart in the middle, the intersection of the two TLs, if it were broken to the downside, that would have taken my stuph back to the darkside:



tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:48AM ET
it's really hard to see this kind of market action as bullish... yes, it's coiling, but for a breakout in which direction? looks down, but could go up

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:51AM ET
spx chart could still be interpreted as wave-e:c ending at the high yest, with a wave-i, wave-ii down in place

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:53AM ET
right back on that UTL on the ES chart... ~6-min to go on the bar

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 11:13AM ET
needless to say, my stuph went over to the dark side... ES 73.50... +1.0 on last swing


tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 11:14AM ET
also, the interpretation of wave-e:c is in play, so this would be a wave-iii down

[alanm]

Tim, What is the name of the other site you post at, please? Thanks in advance! Alan

[tsharp]

Tim,

What is the name of the other site you post at, please?

Thanks in advance!

Alan

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

hi alan,

i hope mark doesn't mind my posting a link here, as i only post at two sites, and post links back to here nearly every day.

anyway, here's the link: http://avidtrader.com/chat/free/

--tsharp

[tsharp]

sorry for the little delay here, i didn't have the page pre-loaded and was chatting over at another daytrader's site...

fwiw, my short-term momentum model just gave a SAR signal at 1173.50 at 11:00 for +1.0 on the last swing.

it appears at this moment, that the high yesterday was a wave-e:c:iv, or else we're still in a more complex wave-iv, but by the former interpretation, we've already completed a wave-i, wave-ii and have just begun a wave-iii down... twt.

will post a chart later.

--tsharp

P.S.  posts from the other site:

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:46AM ET
oh the precision with which they play their games... look at the ES chart in the middle, the intersection of the two TLs, if it were broken to the downside, that would have taken my stuph back to the darkside:



tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:48AM ET
it's really hard to see this kind of market action as bullish... yes, it's coiling, but for a breakout in which direction? looks down, but could go up

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:51AM ET
spx chart could still be interpreted as wave-e:c ending at the high yest, with a wave-i, wave-ii down in place

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:53AM ET
right back on that UTL on the ES chart... ~6-min to go on the bar

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 11:13AM ET
needless to say, my stuph went over to the dark side... ES 73.50... +1.0 on last swing


tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 11:14AM ET
also, the interpretation of wave-e:c is in play, so this would be a wave-iii down

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well... aint that something! my first double signal in the same day... and i do hope that it will be the last, as this past week has been one of the worst i've endured in a very long time.

i hope you'll cut me a little bit of slack with the kind of close we had, as i was winding things up, getting my charts and stuff together.... i really didn't expect another signal today, so i didn't have a window open here, and it came right at the RTH close... so i thought that i'd just go ahead and get my charts and thoughts together, and then post it when it was ready.

anyway, the bottom line is that my short-term momentum model SARed back to a buy at 16:00 at ES 1171.0, for +2.5 on the last swing. the benefit of the doubt had to be extended to the positive divergence in the right chart, and the fact that the potential bearish flag didn't break to the downside.

i'll post other charts over the weekend, but do not think that we've yet seen an IT bottom (the daily & weekly charts don't appear to support that notion), but rather, that we're seeing a more complex wave-iv, and that we'll likely come back to test the lows at some point in the near future. in the meantime, it appears that we could be moving up in a wave-c:iv; the lows today would likely have been the bottom of wave-b:iv... we shall see.

have a great weekend!


--tsharp

[tsharp]

sorry for the little delay here, i didn't have the page pre-loaded and was chatting over at another daytrader's site...

fwiw, my short-term momentum model just gave a SAR signal at 1173.50 at 11:00 for +1.0 on the last swing.

it appears at this moment, that the high yesterday was a wave-e:c:iv, or else we're still in a more complex wave-iv, but by the former interpretation, we've already completed a wave-i, wave-ii and have just begun a wave-iii down... twt.

will post a chart later.

--tsharp

P.S.  posts from the other site:

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:46AM ET
oh the precision with which they play their games... look at the ES chart in the middle, the intersection of the two TLs, if it were broken to the downside, that would have taken my stuph back to the darkside:

[deleted image]

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:48AM ET
it's really hard to see this kind of market action as bullish... yes, it's coiling, but for a breakout in which direction? looks down, but could go up

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:51AM ET
spx chart could still be interpreted as wave-e:c ending at the high yest, with a wave-i, wave-ii down in place

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 10:53AM ET
right back on that UTL on the ES chart... ~6-min to go on the bar

tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 11:13AM ET
needless to say, my stuph went over to the dark side... ES 73.50... +1.0 on last swing


tsharp . . Fri, Jan 28, 11:14AM ET
also, the interpretation of wave-e:c is in play, so this would be a wave-iii down

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well... aint that something! my first double signal in the same day... and i do hope that it will be the last, as this past week has been one of the worst i've endured in a very long time.

i hope you'll cut me a little bit of slack with the kind of close we had, as i was winding things up, getting my charts and stuff together.... i really didn't expect another signal today, so i didn't have a window open here, and it came right at the RTH close... so i thought that i'd just go ahead and get my charts and thoughts together, and then post it when it was ready.

anyway, the bottom line is that my short-term momentum model SARed back to a buy at 16:00 at ES 1171.0, for +2.5 on the last swing. the benefit of the doubt had to be extended to the positive divergence in the right chart, and the fact that the potential bearish flag didn't break to the downside.

i'll post other charts over the weekend, but do not think that we've yet seen an IT bottom (the daily & weekly charts don't appear to support that notion), but rather, that we're seeing a more complex wave-iv, and that we'll likely come back to test the lows at some point in the near future. in the meantime, it appears that we could be moving up in a wave-c:iv; the lows today would likely have been the bottom of wave-b:iv... we shall see.

have a great weekend!


--tsharp

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i dunno for sure how high or long this will run, but it's a bit difficult for me to just jump in and short this without any SAR signal, especially in light of the many DTLs (down trend lines) that were broken today, in addition to the overhead gap that was filled today also.

my short-term momentum model remains on a buy from ES 1171.0.

--tsharp

chart attached

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