30 replies to this topic

[TrillionDollarMan]

I like the way Colin Alexander described trend identification in his book: TIMING THE STOCK MARKET. He uses a 25 and 40 period moving average in time frames. So, if the 25 is above the 40 in whatever time frame we are talking, the trend is up, or vice versa if down. Then, the trick is to figure out what the PROGRESSION of time frames is with respect to the trend...and one is in good shape. Of course a decent way to do that, is as per Elder's triple screen, using MACD historgram as a guage of longer term trend, and stochastic as an indication of the next shorter time frame trend. I suppose trendlines and Dave Landry's big blue arrow could do it also, if all else fails! TDM

[TrillionDollarMan]

I like the way Colin Alexander described trend identification in his book:  TIMING THE STOCK MARKET.

He uses a 25 and 40 period moving average in time frames.

So, if the 25 is above the 40 in whatever time frame we are talking, the trend is up, or vice versa if down.

Then, the trick is to figure out what the PROGRESSION of time frames is with respect to the trend...and one is in good shape.

Of course a decent way to do that, is as per Elder's triple screen, using MACD historgram as a guage of longer term trend, and stochastic as an indication of the next shorter time frame trend.

I suppose trendlines and Dave Landry's big blue arrow could do it also, if all else fails!

TDM

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PS -- in perusing the posts, I also like the idea of regression channel, pitchfork, etc. as a more complex form of trendline, and one that can be more indicative perhaps, in terms of channel breaks, etc. And Bollinger Bands, also have a std. deviation component can work in some fashion also.

Edited by TrillionDollarMan, 31 January 2005 - 09:27 PM.

[Douglas]

On a daily chart trend direction called when Demand Index Crosses "0", 6 day + DI minus -DI Crosses "0" and the direction of the 7 day TRIX all agree.

[deacon]

here's some news plays you might want to pick from at 8am another DSCO inferno perhaps WIND ONNN EVOL LSBC i like macd on weekly first for trend...ike always said 50MA 60min for trend looking at some monthly charts last nite, the best monthly macd was XOI.X and EBAY(!)

[cupboardbear]

I would like hear how traders here decide which way the trend is going. Can you give us your simple description?

Thanks a bunch!

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My view is that the market is always trending, in any timeframe. Either it's trending up, down or sideways. So, the first thing I look for is what it isn't doing ... the obvious is easiest to spot.

Since sideways is what it does most of the time (what most techs call 'trendless'), I find the origin of that sideways pattern, then compare the prior up/down trending time and distance covered, for an early guess of how long the sideways could last.

Sideways trends are trading gold mines if you're not looking for an emminent breakout to possibly kill your trade. For all intents and purposes, I look for trends inside of trends which are embedded inside even shorter trends.

That's my mental attitude toward determining a trend. Safety first, trade/money management next, entry/exit targets last, and all that wrapped up in a timing blanket.

[calmcookie]

This is easy,  I apply Wyckoff's techniques, I look at volumes at swing points in the market.  Looking at the Nasdaq composite, the two biggest days of volume in this timeframe were 12/7/04 and 1/3/05

Here's the datapoints:

.................        High......          Low ......          Volume

12/7.....  2161.30......  2114.65 .....      2.59B

1/3 .....  2159.64.....    2100.56.....        2.69B

  First of all, we go to a lower low on higher volume, that's the first part.  Secondly, even with higher volume we were unable to penetrate the high on 12/7.

Conclusion: Weakness, Downtrend.

Volume/price interaction says it all in my World.

What I'd be looking for in a trend reversal here would be a trading day over the 2.69B shares and a swing high over the 2161.30... Although I have my hunches about the market trend and where it goes, the volume/price interaction is what I use to guide my trading....

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[disabledtrader]

This is easy,  I apply Wyckoff's techniques, I look at volumes at swing points in the market.  Looking at the Nasdaq composite, the two biggest days of volume in this timeframe were 12/7/04 and 1/3/05

Here's the datapoints:

.................        High......           Low ......           Volume

12/7.....  2161.30......   2114.65 .....       2.59B

1/3 .....   2159.64.....    2100.56.....        2.69B

   First of all, we go to a lower low on higher volume, that's the first part.  Secondly, even with higher volume we were unable to penetrate the high on 12/7.

Conclusion: Weakness, Downtrend.

Volume/price interaction says it all in my World.

What I'd be looking for in a trend reversal here would be a trading day over the 2.69B shares and a swing high over the 2161.30... Although I have my hunches about the market trend and where it goes, the volume/price interaction is what I use to guide my trading....

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This is easy for my first post. Two or more higher lows in the time period you are trading defines an uptrend.

[disabledtrader]

Sorry, I did not mean to quote someone with my reply. This was my first post and I, at first, could not locate the post reply button.

[Chilidawgz]

Which trend? 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly?

tada!

Channel lines, Chapman wave and MACD

[greenie]

Dan, you wrote: >6 of 7 are already on BUY. Just one small up day tomarrow would trigger a 7 of 7 FULL BUY SIGNAL, by taking the 7th - the $BPCOMPQ - back above lower boundry of the Bollinger Bands. It's looking very much like will happen, given the news background... I do not quite get it. To me all seven sentinels look like in sell. NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, NYHL are all below 6MA. TRINQ 3MA above 13MA. Only one close to buy is TRIN. Am I reading the sentinels wrong ? Thanks, G.