3 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

fwiw, my short-term momentum model just issued a SAR back to a sell at ES 14:30 and at ES 1194.0, for + 23.0 on the last swing. chart later. --tsharp

[tsharp]

fwiw, my short-term momentum model just issued a SAR back to a sell at ES 14:30 and at ES 1194.0, for + 23.0 on the last swing.

chart later.

--tsharp

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i realize that this SAR could just as well SAR back to a Buy tomorrow, as you look at the chart i'm posting, you'll note that the middle chart, the ES 15-min, has it's main signal line sitting just below the DTL...

the little bit of sell-off after the RTH close gave it a slight hook, but with a decent amount of buying in tomorrow's trading, it could rise above that DTL, and if it were to do so on a closing basis, based on the relative positions of the other two charts, it could reverse todays Sell signal.

so then, why the SAR today?

1. the spx respected the previous 1195.98 swing high, only being able to print a 1195.25 high... the ES also respected its previous swing high (see chart).

2. the slight negative divergence of the fast line on the right chart.

3. the signal line on the left chart is only just above the zero line, which is the range that a rejection would occur, if it was going to occur. (notice the previous rejections at the same range from above on the last strong rally.)

4. if this was a wave-c:d:d upward (as per yesterday's 130-min chart post), then today's high printed a fifth wave, so today was the minimum, by my tentative fractal interpretation, that a c-wave high could have printed.

so... those factors caused me to interpret the set-up as a lower entry, though sort of speculative, SAR back to the Sell side... and tomorrow should tell the tale.

--tsharp

[tsharp]

fwiw, my short-term momentum model just issued a SAR back to a sell at ES 14:30 and at ES 1194.0, for + 23.0 on the last swing.

chart later.

--tsharp

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i realize that this SAR could just as well SAR back to a Buy tomorrow, as you look at the chart i'm posting, you'll note that the middle chart, the ES 15-min, has it's main signal line sitting just below the DTL...

the little bit of sell-off after the RTH close gave it a slight hook, but with a decent amount of buying in tomorrow's trading, it could rise above that DTL, and if it were to do so on a closing basis, based on the relative positions of the other two charts, it could reverse todays Sell signal.

so then, why the SAR today?

1. the spx respected the previous 1195.98 swing high, only being able to print a 1195.25 high... the ES also respected its previous swing high (see chart).

2. the slight negative divergence of the fast line on the right chart.

3. the signal line on the left chart is only just above the zero line, which is the range that a rejection would occur, if it was going to occur. (notice the previous rejections at the same range from above on the last strong rally.)

4. if this was a wave-c:d:d upward (as per yesterday's 130-min chart post), then today's high printed a fifth wave, so today was the minimum, by my tentative fractal interpretation, that a c-wave high could have printed.

so... those factors caused me to interpret the set-up as a lower entry, though sort of speculative, SAR back to the Sell side... and tomorrow should tell the tale.

--tsharp

[edited out chart]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

and here's an updated chart of the 130-min spx... i've also inserted a potential alt count, as has been discussed by a few today over on the FF board.

[Tor]

These are really good postings TS. Many thanks.