4 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

fwiw, from a fractal, ML, and fib perspective, it appears to me that we're at a CIT price level... though i don't know if the actual price high came today, or if it will come tomorrow, with another nominal new high.

you'll note the fib ruler i placed on the current leg up... it does not start from the low of the swing, because i count that drop down as a part of the wave-a structure. anyway, today's highs appear to have reached (or at least nearly so) the fib price level (wave-a to wave-c) that i would have looked for in such a fractal structure... though as i said above, there is room for at least another nominal new high, and from a larger fractal perspective, it appears that there still needs to be at least one more attempt at a high to complete a fifth of fifth... we shall see.

--tsharp

Edited by tsharp, 15 February 2005 - 05:44 PM.

[bobalou]

if wave 1 ( 8 10 -1065 to 10 8 - 1140 ) = wave 5 (1/28 1162 +75 ?? ),,then we should see 1238...is that right ?? thanks

[tsharp]

if wave 1  ( 8 10 -1065 to 10 8 - 1140 )  = wave 5 (1/28  1162 +75    ??  ),,then we should see 1238...is that right ?? thanks

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm on a another computer which does not have all the chart set-ups that my other computer has, so let me re-paste the weekly chart, which also has the 1239 range as a potential target from a different fib projection.

i suppose that if i were going to attempt to project a top, i would be inclined to project it based on the internals of the final five waves up [ wave-( c ) ], which by my EW count, wave-a started @ ~1061 and ran to ~1132 for a ~71 point rise...

additionally, with the wave-c being the longest (~1095 - ~1188 = ~107 points), i would suggest that wave-a and wave-e would tend towards equality...

so IF this supposed wave-d bottoms in the ~1174 range, as i've been thinking it might, then adding a ~71 point rise to that would bring us to ~1245...

UNLESS the wave-e started @ the ~1164 low (i don't currently favor this view), then adding a ~71 point rise to that would bring us to ~1235...

i hope this answers your question.

--tsharp

[BovineMarket]

I think the SPX is going to 1280-1300 by July/August. This is likely to represent the third leg of the correction being complete since March 2003. It appears that oil stocks are going to top out around this time frame also.

[tsharp]

fwiw, from a fractal, ML, and fib perspective, it appears to me that we're at a CIT price level... though i don't know if the actual price high came today, or if it will come tomorrow, with another nominal new high.

you'll note the fib ruler i placed on the current leg up... it does not start from the low of the swing, because i count that drop down as a part of the wave-a structure.  anyway, today's highs appear to have reached (or at least nearly so) the fib price level (wave-a to wave-c) that i would have looked for in such a fractal structure... though as i said above, there is room for at least another nominal new high, and from a larger fractal perspective, it appears that there still needs to be at least one more attempt at a high to complete a fifth of fifth... we shall see.

--tsharp

[edited out previous chart]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

it appears to me that we're coming into some decent support... daily S2, weekly Pivot, Roundy 1200, and the PBMA (green line on the price charts)...

imho, what the market ultimately does with the pbma (bounce or fall through) should determine the ST trend over the next few days to weeks... twt.