Jump to content



Photo

Stocks too high VS Gold


  • Please log in to reply
2 replies to this topic

#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,882 posts

Posted 19 February 2005 - 01:20 PM

Well that's what they are saying at: Safehaven
They see $421 as a key support area for gold.
Posted Image
"...This chart compares the Dow Industrials to gold. You can see that since 1919 there have been two major cycles and we're currently into the third. When this ratio rises, the percentage gains are better in stocks compared to gold and when it declines, gold is the winning investment.
"...Note, for instance, stocks were better in the 1920s, 1950s-1960s and 1980s-1990s. Gold was better in the early 1930s, 1970s and now. This mega trend is telling us gold is where our investment focus should be, not stocks at this time.
"...Also interesting, the lows in the ratio have occurred below 2. This also indicates stocks are still expensive and gold is cheap with the ratio now near 25. This means that somewhere ahead, and it'll likely take years, this ratio will probably again get to near 2, which will happen as gold rises and stocks fall. But either way, the ratio suggests the rises and declines are going to be dramatic.
"...Coming back to what's happening now, gold's intermediate decline that started in December is coming to an end. And if gold can now stay above $421, a renewed rise will be underway. This is now providing a good opportunity to buy new positions looking out to the months ahead and to the long-term.

#2 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,882 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 04:52 PM

Here's a shorter term view calling for hesitation here:
Gold Market Update

by Clive Maund
While gold did not become anywhere near as overbought as silver on its mid-month run-up, the odds favour a short-term correction from here. There are several factors that taken together make this likely.

Posted Image

His view on silver is similar:
Silver Update by Clive Maund

Posted Image

Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 February 2005 - 04:55 PM.


#3 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,882 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:20 PM

And here's one from McHugh Newsletter: