first, one of the first trend filters i created is below. obviously, green means a bullish trend is in place and red means that a bearish trend is in place... and the trend at this time is still bullish.
however, notice the relative strength of trend on the left side of the chart, versus the strength of trend on the right... notice also that the current upward move appears to be already rolling over with negative divergence... this is not the kind of market action i would expect to find in the epicenter of 3 of 3, but i'm willing to reserve judgment until we see what happens over the next couple of months.
next is the hybrid momentum indicator i developed. what i think will happen is marked by the yellow numbers on the price chart and the tan circles down on the indicator lines, but regardless of what i think, at this time, it also shows negative divergence, which seems to be suggesting that the main part of the current bullish trend is already expended... but again, i'll reserve judgment for another couple of months, to see what develops here.
finally, is another relative measuring chart i put together, which is a 21-WMAC (weekly moving average channel) with 5% deviation bands above and below the 21-wma.
again, notice that during the bull trend on the left side of the chart, the price level came again and again up to the 10% deviation line above the 21-wma, which i suggest is one of the clear signs of strength in a bullish trend, but on the right side of the chart, the price level has only reached that same plateau only once so far, and since has pretty much been held at bay by the 5% deviation line, which while still indicating a bullish trend, it's not the kind of price action i would expect to see in the epicenter of 3 of 3... but as always, twt.
--tsharp
