4-year top, Armstrong, Benner & Wave-IV low...
#1
Posted 06 March 2005 - 11:16 PM
therefore, i would think it shouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that the US financial markets are overdue to put in another major IT top, which would also likely mark the four-year cycle high.
below is a chart i prepared that attempts to integrate the four-year cycle highs, four-year cycle lows, Armstrong's cycle, Benner's cycle, and my current fractal interpretation of the spx in its Intermediate Wave-IV (active imagination, eh?)... as always, we shall see.
--tsharp
#2
Posted 07 March 2005 - 10:39 AM
the ATH (print highs) in the spx and dow were in March 2000, and what i believe were the orthodox highs in both came in September of the same year.
therefore, i would think it shouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that the US financial markets are overdue to put in another major IT top, which would also likely mark the four-year cycle high.
below is a chart i prepared that attempts to integrate the four-year cycle highs, four-year cycle lows, Armstrong's cycle, Benner's cycle, and my current fractal interpretation of the spx in its Intermediate Wave-IV (active imagination, eh?)... as always, we shall see.
--tsharp
Nice work. Thanks.
#3
Posted 13 March 2005 - 03:37 PM
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#4
Posted 13 March 2005 - 04:41 PM
Nice work TS - do you have any info about how the Fib/Benner cycle is counted. Strikes me that the time interval 2003 - 2010 is long, while 2010-2011 is unusually short. Many thanks.
i don't have all the answers to your question, because you're asking about the work of two different people.
wrt Benner, the story goes something like this, a graph of "pig iron" (scrap iron) prices was discovered in an old desk. the graph showed a cycle that used fibonacci spans of years between the various peaks and troughs. apparently the relative strength of the economy was also revealed in the relative strength of the price of the scrap iron prices.
here are some charts i've collected over the past few years:
"copy of original Benner chart"
"older remake by Tom Drake"
"newer remake by tsharp"
wrt to Armstrong's cycle, some have suggested that he merely modified Benner's cycles... but i cannot confirm that, and from what i've heard from other sources, that story is not accurate.
it's said that Marty Armstrong used the base phi, 3.141 times 1000 to come up a cycle of 3141 days. Marty suggested that because the creation has fixed cycles, so must also mankind, so with some research he found an appropriate anchor, and worked with his 8.6-year Economic Confidence Model...
i think it's really quite amazing how many exact hits his model makes wrt economic events that take place. from what i remember, it was never intended to be a tool for timing the market, but rather to time the movement of "hot" investment capital from one hot spot to the next.
here are some Armstrong charts i've collected over the past few years.
hope this answers your questions.
--tsharp
Edited by tsharp, 13 March 2005 - 04:42 PM.