4 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

grant me patience... NOW! <ggg>

it seems that one of the most difficult disciplines to master in the forecasting arena is that of stepping back far enough from the canvas to put today's price action in proper perspective, so as to be able to make realistic projections of price action into the future.

in most cases, the market doesn't behave in the extreme... even my suggestion three weeks ago of a move nearly straight down in the main indices was borderline extreme, though so far the market has been kind enough to accomodate my call... at least, so far.

my point is that forecasts of spx 1400 over a few week's time OR the other way of a market crash (spx 600) are not realistic, and are not the historic norm... panics in the financial markets are relative rare events.

as i try to stand back from the canvas a bit, it seems to me that the most realistic scenario for this year, 2005, is pretty much a reverse carbon copy of last year, where the spx will pretty much remain in a trading range, but slightly down on the year (in terms of percentage), rather than slightly up, as it was last year.

here's a chart of the daily spx to show what i think might be a relatively realistic scenario for 2005, going into a steep decline throughout most of 2006.


--tsharp

[mss]

Hi tsharp,
There is no way that I am as knowledge as you and others as to forecasting the future of prices. Have some luck at calling turns, BUY/SELL, but am an old timer and trend lines and a few simple indicators are the best I do. You got me to thinking about '06 & '07 so extended this monthly chart, to '07, and took a stab at what "I" see. A max "TOP" at 1315, likely 1256, likely "BOTTOM" at 932 max 776 or a crash to 600.



This is my outlook over the next several weeks. My BUY/SELL indicator is still on SELL.



Your thoughts and suggestions are more than welcome, still learning.
Thanks and best to you, mss

[tsharp]

Hi tsharp,
There is no way that I am as knowledge as you and others as to forecasting the future of prices. Have some luck at calling turns, BUY/SELL, but am an old timer and trend lines and a few simple indicators are the best I do. You got me to thinking about '06 & '07 so extended this monthly chart, to '07, and took a stab at what "I" see. A max "TOP" at 1315, likely 1256, likely "BOTTOM" at 932 max 776 or a crash to 600.

[Edited out chart]

This is my outlook over the next several weeks. My BUY/SELL indicator is still on SELL.

[Edited out chart]

Your thoughts and suggestions are more than welcome, still learning.
Thanks and best to you, mss

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

mss,

to be honest with you, your guess is prolly as good as mine... (though i would choose a log scale on your channel chart)

while i've been correct many times in the past, i've also been mistaken at times.

i think the real wildcard in the equation at this time is 'flation'...

look at the two charts below... these are charts i've not published before, but have been watching with interest, as they seem to depict two different reactions by the financial markets (spx as proxy) to the relative degree of inflationary/deflationary pressures.

i've previously opined that i think there may be two different longwave fractals:
one fractal pattern bringing extreme inflation early in the inflationary uptrend, and bringing extreme deflation in its deflationary downtrend.
the other fractal pattern brings extreme inflation about 15 years into its inflationary uptrend (about midway), but doesn't allow extreme deflation in its deflationary downtrend.

i think we just came out of the latter, and are beginning, as of ~2003, the former. if so, then i think we could see extreme inflationary pressures early in this longwave cycle, which will hinder an early strong-growth environment in the main indices... but this is still just a working theory... and as always... twt.

--tsharp


extreme inflationary pressures and the slow momentum response:



moderate inflation/deflation and the slow momentum response:

[mss]

Thanks for your time and comments. Happy EASTER mss

[Alton]

I want to make an opportunity to thank tsharp and mss for their charts posted on both the Traders-Talk forums. Tim's charts were a primary reason I began reading on the site a few years ago, and mss shows a flexibility and insight in posting that continually astounds me. Thanks - Alton 20050328