The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter
Monday 5/2/05
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
---------------------------------------------------------------
LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
Leibovit Files
Monday, May 02, 2005
Opening Comments
Economic Data and events May 2-6:
---------------------------------------------
| MONDAY, May 2: ISM Index for April (10 am ET) Construction Spending for March (10 am ET) Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills Auto Sales for April |
| TUESDAY, May 3: Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET) Factory Orders for March (10 am ET) FOMC Meeting (policy announcement 2:15 pm ET) |
| WEDNESDAY, May 4: ISM Services Index for April (8:30 am ET) EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET) Treasury announces 3, 5 & 10-year note auctions (11 am ET) |
| THURSDAY, May 5: Productivity Index for 1st Qtr (8:30 am ET) Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET) Alan Greenspeak at the microphones again (9:30 am ET) Chain Store Sales for April (11 am ET) Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET) |
| FRIDAY, May 6: Employment Report for April (9:45 am ET) Consumer Credit for March (3 pm ET) |
A sell-off in Crude Oil was the excuse for Friday's sudden market reversal to the upside,but, it may also be a result of end of the month 'window dressing'. Generally,we see 401K funds put to work my money managers the beginning of the month (today), solet's see if get any followthrough.
Friday's action was a one-day positive, but by no means a clear buy signal for the market.A few indexes (Dow Industrials, S&P 500) posted 'Key Reversal' patterns (higher high,lower low as compared to the previous trading session - accompanied by increasingvolume. However, that pattern was by no means broad-based. No such reversalswere seen in the Nasdaq, SemiConductor Index, Midcap 400 or the Russell 2000. Farfrom convincing, but perhaps these other indexes will catch bull fever today. Let'swait and see.
With the Fed reporting its decision on both short-term interest rates and its assessmentof inflation and the economy on Tuesday, the market will be waiting with baitedbreadth. Perhaps less restrictive comments on the part of the Fed might encouragestocks to rally further, but it may just be another 'dead-cat' bounce. A 'cyclicalchange' point was due into the weekend as we previously reported, so bullish traders wouldbe using Friday's lows as a mental stop.
My friend, Jack Adamo (jackadamo.com), who authors the excellent 'Insiders Plus'newsletter says this week: "For the week ended April 18, M-3, the broadest measure ofmoney supply, increased by a staggering $53.6 billion. Richard Russell, the 80-year olddoyen of the Dow, and an astute market follower for more than 50 years, says he hasliterally never seen a jump n money supply this drastic. As I discussed last week, moneysupply growth that exceeds GDP growth is inflationary; so, while the Fed has been making abig show of raising interest rates (which caused the dollar to firm), it is furtivelyexpanding the money supply at a rapid rate. This ultimately cheapens the dollar and bidsup the price of gold."
Greenspan often loosens or tightens money supply in the opposite direction of moves ininterest rates which to a certain degree mitigates one of the decisions, but also tends tohide the other.
---------------------------------------------------------------
PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Monday, May 02, 2005
(Reserved for subscribers)
--------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT PORTFOLIO
--------------------------------------------------------------
(Reserved for subscribers)
Copyright © 2005 VRTrader.com.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
About Mark Lebovit
